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Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

31' Event
Cleyton
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

The Carioca B1 2025 game between Serrano FC and Bonsucesso finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Serrano FC.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
Serrano FC
30%
Draws
47%
Bonsucesso
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Bonsucesso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Bonsucesso come out ahead of Serrano FC on wins alone.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Bonsucesso taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Serrano FC Clean Sheet 16%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serrano FC Bonsucesso
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 10 12
Draws 10 9
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 1 1.1
Goals Conceded 1.14 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.69 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Carioca 2
Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso
0:0
Dec 6, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Serrano FC
0:0
Nov 30, 2025 Carioca B1
Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Carioca B1
Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso
1:0
Nov 25, 2020 Carioca 2
Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serrano FC 28 / 100
Bonsucesso 50 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serrano FC Bonsucesso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Bonsucesso Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serrano FC found the back of the net in 64% of recent matches (28 games).

Bonsucesso's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Serrano FC stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serrano FC VS Bonsucesso
0.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 50%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Serrano FC

(Home)
19 Sept
Audax RJ
0 : 1
Serrano FC
12 Sept
Serrano FC
0 : 0
Goytacaz
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
04 Jul
America RJ
5 : 0
Serrano FC
27 Jun
Serrano FC
0 : 3
Sao Goncalo
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Bonsucesso

(Away)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Bonsucesso 11 6 4 1 14:7 22
2 Sao Cristovao 11 5 4 2 14:8 19
3 Serrano FC 11 5 3 3 14:11 18
4 Duque de Caxias 11 5 3 3 10:9 18
5 Niteroiense 11 4 4 3 16:14 16
6 Goncalense 11 5 1 5 11:9 16
7 Nova Cidade 11 4 4 3 9:9 16
8 Campo Grande 11 3 6 2 9:8 15
9 Artsul 11 3 4 4 11:10 13
10 AA Carapebus 11 3 3 5 6:13 12
11 Paduano EC 11 3 1 7 12:18 10
12 Friburguense 11 1 1 9 3:13 4
Promotion - Carioca B1 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca B2 2025 (Main)