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Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso Prediction & H2H Stats

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

12' Event
Pereira N.
24' Event
Anderson
31' Event
Cleyton

AI Match Summary

Serrano FC in this Carioca B1 2025 tie, finishing 2-1. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

25%
Serrano FC
35%
Draws
40%
Bonsucesso
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Bonsucesso

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

35% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Bonsucesso lately — more wins on the board than Serrano FC.
  • Serrano FC are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • Bonsucesso arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Serrano FC, who have won 3 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Serrano FC Clean Sheet 68%
Bonsucesso Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serrano FC Bonsucesso
Matches Played 29 33
Wins 10 14
Draws 12 9
Losses 7 10
Goals Scored 1 1.21
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.94
Expected Goals (xG) 0.81 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2026 Carioca 2
Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso
0:0
Dec 6, 2025 Carioca B1
Bonsucesso vs Serrano FC
0:0
Nov 30, 2025 Carioca B1
Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso
2:1
Nov 8, 2025 Carioca B1
Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso
1:0
Nov 25, 2020 Carioca 2
Serrano FC vs Bonsucesso
4:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serrano FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Anderson
1 Goals
Assists Leader Cleyton
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.62
Avg xA / game 0.41

Bonsucesso Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira N.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serrano FC 51 / 100
Bonsucesso 48 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serrano FC Bonsucesso

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serrano FC scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Defensive concern: Bonsucesso conceded in 64% of 33 recent games.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Serrano FC stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serrano FC VS Bonsucesso
0.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.75 Goals Conceded 1.25
63% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Serrano FC

(Home)
26 Sept
Serrano FC
1 : 1
Campo Grande
19 Sept
Audax RJ
0 : 1
Serrano FC
12 Sept
Serrano FC
0 : 0
Goytacaz
05 Sept
Niteroiense
2 : 0
Serrano FC
04 Jul
America RJ
5 : 0
Serrano FC
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Bonsucesso

(Away)
22 Jul
Madureira
2 : 1
Bonsucesso
15 Jul
Bonsucesso
2 : 2
Madureira
04 Jul
Olaria
0 : 1
Bonsucesso
01 Jul
Bonsucesso
3 : 2
America RJ
23 Jun
Cabofriense
0 : 0
Bonsucesso
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Bonsucesso 2
Duque de Caxias 1
Sao Cristovao 0
Serrano FC 2
Final
Bonsucesso 1
Serrano FC 2