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Serrano FC vs Duque de Caxias

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B1
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Faiska
56' Event
Eduardo
77'
Abuda

AI Match Summary

Serrano FC host Duque de Caxias in the Carioca B1. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Serrano FC have averaged 1.25 scored and 0.75 conceded recently, against Duque de Caxias's 0.25 scored and 2 conceded. Past meetings favor Duque de Caxias slightly — 1-2-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 13, 2025, ending 2:1. xG projections (1.63 - 0.50) back Serrano FC to edge this. Serrano FC in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Serrano FC
39%
Draws
30%
Duque de Caxias
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Serrano FC has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Duque de Caxias.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 39% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Carioca B1 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Serrano FC Clean Sheet 31%
Duque de Caxias Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serrano FC Duque de Caxias
Matches Played 34 31
Wins 11 10
Draws 11 8
Losses 12 13
Goals Scored 1.25 0.25
Goals Conceded 0.75 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.75 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2025 Carioca B1
Serrano FC vs Duque de Caxias
2:1
May 25, 2024 Carioca 2
Duque de Caxias vs Serrano FC
1:0
Sep 30, 2020 Carioca 2
Serrano FC vs Duque de Caxias
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Serrano FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Eduardo
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gutinho
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Duque de Caxias Compare

Top Goalscorer Faiska
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.23
Avg xA / game 0.14

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serrano FC 34 / 100
Duque de Caxias 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serrano FC Duque de Caxias

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick DUQ Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serrano FC scored in 65% of their last 34 games.

Duque de Caxias let in goals in 58% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.33 goals.

Serrano FC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Duque de Caxias lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Serrano FC VS Duque de Caxias
1.25 Goals Scored 0.25
0.75 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 25%
13% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Bonsucesso1164114:722
2Sao Cristovao1154214:819
3Serrano FC1153314:1118
4Duque de Caxias1153310:918
5Niteroiense1144316:1416
6Goncalense1151511:916
7Nova Cidade114439:916
8Campo Grande113629:815
9Artsul1134411:1013
10AA Carapebus113356:1312
11Paduano EC1131712:1810
12Friburguense111193:134