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Serrano vs Jacobina

Brazil Brazil

Campeonato Baiano 2015
Our Tip

Match Events

11' Event
56' Event
85' Event

AI Match Summary

This match ends 1-3, with Jacobina advancing. Cup football at its most decisive.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Serrano
15%
Draws
36%
Jacobina
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Serrano

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

49% / Medium Confidence
  • Jacobina have managed 0.84 goals a game lately — Serrano are scoring more at 1.07.
  • Model gives Serrano a 49% chance of winning this.
  • Both sides arrive with similar form. In a knockout tie, that makes this genuinely unpredictable.
  • Historical meetings favor Jacobina, who have won 1 of the last 3 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Serrano Clean Sheet 20%
Jacobina Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Serrano Jacobina
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 7 7
Draws 6 9
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.07 0.84
Goals Conceded 1.87 1.84
Expected Goals (xG) 1.42 0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 22, 2015 Baiano
Serrano vs Jacobina
1:3
Mar 15, 2015 Baiano
Jacobina vs Serrano
1:1
Mar 8, 2015 Baiano
Serrano vs Jacobina
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serrano 85 / 100
Jacobina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Serrano Jacobina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Serrano Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Serrano scored in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Jacobina's defensive record shows goals conceded in 78% of 32 matches.

H2H data points to 2.33 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Jacobina registered 4 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Jacobina
0 Goals Scored 0.63
0 Goals Conceded 1.63
0% Over 1.5 75%
0% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Serrano

(Home)
13 Sept
Central SC
3 : 0
Serrano
06 Sept
Serrano
3 : 1
Treze PB
30 Aug
Estanciano EC
3 : 1
Serrano
16 Aug
Serrano
0 : 1
Goianesia
02 Aug
Goianesia
0 : 0
Serrano
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Jacobina

(Away)
05 Jul
Jacobina
0 : 5
Feira FC
19 Jun
Leonico
5 : 2
Jacobina
13 Jun
Jacobina
0 : 6
Fluminense de Feira
07 Jun
Barreiras
2 : 1
Jacobina
31 May
Jacobina
2 : 0
Camacari
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Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Catuense 2
Feirense 3
Serrano 2
Jacobina 4