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Sertanense vs Fornos de Algodres

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sertanense in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018 matchup, with the score ending 6-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sertanense.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sertanense
20%
Draws
48%
Fornos de Algodres
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fornos de Algodres

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

32% / Low Confidence
  • Fornos de Algodres haven't matched Sertanense's recent run of results.
  • 32% — that's where the model lands on Sertanense taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2017/2018 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.6%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 20%
Fornos de Algodres Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sertanense Fornos de Algodres
Matches Played 41 30
Wins 13 1
Draws 12 4
Losses 16 25
Goals Scored 1.29 0.57
Goals Conceded 1.05 3.03
Expected Goals (xG) 2.31 0.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 22, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Fornos de Algodres
6:1
Jan 7, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fornos de Algodres vs Sertanense
1:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sertanense 85 / 100
Fornos de Algodres 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sertanense Fornos de Algodres

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sertanense Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Fornos de Algodres conceded in 97% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 5.50 goals.

Sertanense scored in 63% of their last 41 games.

Fornos de Algodres's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sertanense VS Fornos de Algodres
0.63 Goals Scored 1
0.88 Goals Conceded 4
63% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 100%
0% Over 3.5 100%

Recent Form & Match History

Sertanense

(Home)
27 Sept
O Elvas CAD
2 : 0
Sertanense
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
Page 1 of 9

Fornos de Algodres

(Away)
30 Aug
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 4
Os Marialvas
18 Oct
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 7
AFS
21 Sept
Fornos de Algodres
3 : 1
Charneca Caparica
10 Sept
Fornos de Algodres
0 : 5
Oliveira Hospital
22 Apr
Sertanense
6 : 1
Fornos de Algodres
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Leiria 30 23 4 3 68:21 73
2 Lusitano FCV 30 20 5 5 47:19 65
3 SB Castelo Branco 30 17 8 5 48:23 59
4 Sertanense 30 15 8 7 51:22 53
5 Agueda 30 14 7 9 39:32 49
6 Gafanha 30 13 9 8 36:23 48
7 Anadia 30 12 10 8 39:28 46
8 Maritimo B 30 14 3 13 44:30 45
9 Nogueirense 30 11 9 10 37:38 42
10 Oleiros 30 12 6 12 35:36 42
11 Marinhense 30 11 8 11 43:41 41
12 Mortagua FC 30 11 3 16 23:40 36
13 Ferreira de Aves 30 9 2 19 34:69 29
14 Aguias do Moradal 30 5 6 19 29:54 21
15 GD Sourense 30 3 8 19 28:57 17
16 Fornos de Algodres 30 0 4 26 15:83 4
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2017/2018 (Play Offs)