Sport Picks

Portugal

Taça de Portugal 2011/2012

FC Alpendorada

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Serzedelo play FC Alpendorada in the Taça de Portugal 2011/2012. It looks like a close match. Recently, Serzedelo averaged 1.45 goals scored and 1.27 conceded. FC Alpendorada averaged 1.32 goals scored and 0.97 conceded. In past meetings, Serzedelo won 1, FC Alpendorada won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Aug 28, 2011 ended 1:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.17 for Serzedelo and 1.11 for FC Alpendorada. This points to a Serzedelo double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%

Serzedelo

26%

Draws

30%

FC Alpendorada

Draw rate projection: 26% Favored: Serzedelo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

75% / High Confidence

Serzedelo picked up more points recently compared to FC Alpendorada.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.17 vs 1.11 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 60%

Over 2.5 Goals 47%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 44%

Serzedelo Clean Sheet 21%

FC Alpendorada Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 54%

Second Half Goal 57%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Serzedelo	FC Alpendorada
Matches Played	11	31
Wins	6	11
Draws	0	11
Losses	5	9
Goals Scored	1.45	1.32
Goals Conceded	1.27	0.97

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 28, 2011 Taça de Portugal

Serzedelo vs FC Alpendorada

Possession: 42% - 53% Cards: 0 - 1

1:0

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Serzedelo 44 / 100

FC Alpendorada 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Serzedelo FC Alpendorada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Serzedelo or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +22.3%

2.78

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +14.7%

2.44

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Serzedelo attacking → ← attacking FC Alpendorada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Serzedelo scored in 73% of their last 11 games.

FC Alpendorada let in goals in 65% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 1.00 goals.

Serzedelo went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

FC Alpendorada lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

18 Points in last 5 44

0.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.13

0.00 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13