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Sestri Levante vs Castanese

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2022/2023
Our Tip

Match Events

50' Event
Pane M.
87'
Troiano L.

AI Match Summary

Sestri Levante in this Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sestri Levante.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Sestri Levante
30%
Draws
16%
Castanese
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sestri Levante

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Sestri Levante have won more games recently than Castanese.
  • Sestri Levante are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 23%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 68%
Castanese Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sestri Levante Castanese
Matches Played 33 30
Wins 14 5
Draws 9 11
Losses 10 14
Goals Scored 1.52 1
Goals Conceded 1.03 1.47
Expected Goals (xG) 1.23 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 25, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Castanese
1:0
Sep 21, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Castanese vs Sestri Levante
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sestri Levante Compare

Top Goalscorer Pane M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.95
Avg xA / game 0.61

Castanese Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sestri Levante 59 / 100
Castanese 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sestri Levante Castanese

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sestri Levante Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Castanese has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Attacking prowess: Sestri Levante scored in 70% of their last 33 outings.

Historical meetings average 2.50 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Sestri Levante stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sestri Levante VS -
1.25 Goals Scored 0
1.25 Goals Conceded 0
75% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sestri Levante

(Home)
20 Sept
GSD Lascaris
1 : 1
Sestri Levante
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
13 Sept
Alessandria
2 : 1
Sestri Levante
06 Sept
Sestri Levante
2 : 0
Asti Calcio
19 Aug
Sampdoria U20
1 : 4
Sestri Levante
Page 1 of 7

Castanese

(Away)
14 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 0
Castanese
07 May
Ligorna
2 : 1
Castanese
30 Apr
Castanese
1 : 1
Stresa Vergante
23 Apr
Vado
2 : 0
Castanese
16 Apr
Castanese
3 : 3
AC Chieri
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sestri Levante 38 30 4 4 77:29 94
2 Sanremese 38 21 11 6 59:33 74
3 Bra 38 21 11 6 59:31 74
4 Vado 38 19 12 7 61:40 69
5 Ligorna 38 17 15 6 50:36 66
6 Legnano 38 17 9 12 53:35 60
7 Asti Calcio 38 13 18 7 44:35 57
8 Gozzano 38 16 7 15 51:48 55
9 Borgosesia Calcio 38 14 10 14 54:54 52
10 PDHA 38 12 11 15 33:43 47
11 Castellanzese 38 11 13 14 51:55 46
12 AC Chieri 38 10 15 13 41:45 45
13 Fezzanese 38 11 12 15 47:58 45
14 Chisola 38 11 10 17 43:53 43
15 Pinerolo 38 8 18 12 38:44 42
16 Derthona FbC 38 9 15 14 55:62 42
17 Castanese 38 9 12 17 43:57 39
18 Stresa Vergante 38 7 13 18 37:47 34
19 Casale 38 5 9 24 28:79 24
20 Fossano 38 1 11 26 40:80 14
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2022/2023 (Play Out)