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Sestri Levante vs Gozzano

Italy Italy

Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 Giuseppe Sivori, Sestri Levante
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Sarpa C.

AI Match Summary

Gozzano in this Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Gozzano.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

41%
Sestri Levante
30%
Draws
29%
Gozzano
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sestri Levante

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Sestri Levante have won more games recently than Gozzano.
  • Sestri Levante are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • History favors Sestri Levante here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Sestri Levante Clean Sheet 68%
Gozzano Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sestri Levante Gozzano
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 13 8
Draws 10 12
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 1.52 1
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Gozzano
0:1
Oct 12, 2025 Serie D - Group A
Gozzano vs Sestri Levante
0:1
Apr 6, 2023 Serie D - Group A
Gozzano vs Sestri Levante
1:3
Nov 27, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Gozzano
3:1
Feb 16, 2022 Serie D - Group A
Sestri Levante vs Gozzano
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sestri Levante Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Gozzano Compare

Top Goalscorer Sarpa C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.66

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sestri Levante 68 / 100
Gozzano 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sestri Levante Gozzano

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sestri Levante Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sestri Levante's goal record stands at 70% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

Gozzano's defensive record shows goals conceded in 69% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.

Sestri Levante has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sestri Levante VS Gozzano
1.25 Goals Scored 0.88
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sestri Levante

(Home)
16 Sept
Sestri Levante
0 : 3
Fezzanese
13 Sept
Alessandria
2 : 1
Sestri Levante
06 Sept
Sestri Levante
2 : 0
Asti Calcio
19 Aug
Sampdoria U20
1 : 4
Sestri Levante
15 Aug
Sestri Levante
1 : 1
Genoa U20
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Gozzano

(Away)
16 Sept
Gozzano
0 : 0
Borgosesia Calcio
12 Sept
Asti Calcio
2 : 0
Gozzano
06 Sept
Gozzano
0 : 0
GSD Lascaris
12 Aug
Pro Patria
3 : 1
Gozzano
10 May
Derthona FbC
1 : 2
Gozzano
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vado 34 24 6 4 69:24 78
2 Ligorna 34 21 9 4 64:26 72
3 AS Biellese 34 16 9 9 48:29 57
4 Varese FC 34 16 8 10 43:43 56
5 Chisola 34 16 7 11 44:36 55
6 Sestri Levante 34 15 9 10 54:34 54
7 Sanremese 34 13 10 11 37:30 49
8 Valenzana 34 12 9 13 33:48 45
9 Celle Varazze 34 12 8 14 41:47 44
10 Saluzzo 34 11 10 13 48:44 43
11 Club Milano 34 12 6 16 43:49 42
12 Imperia Calcio 34 10 11 13 36:44 41
13 Cairese 34 9 13 12 29:34 40
14 Derthona FbC 34 11 7 16 36:46 40
15 Gozzano 34 9 12 13 37:42 39
16 Asti Calcio 34 8 11 15 32:42 35
17 Lavagnese 34 5 12 17 32:52 27
18 NovaRomentin 34 6 3 25 26:82 16
Promotion - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group A 2025/2026 (Play Out)