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Shakhtar vs AEK - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Europe Europe

Champions League Stamford Bridge, London
Wed, Oct 14, 2026
VS
07:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shakhtar host AEK in the Champions League. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Shakhtar at 2.1 goals for, 0.79 against; AEK at 2.1 for, 0.83 against. Head-to-head, Shakhtar have won 0 to AEK's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Jul 13, 2023, ending 5:0. The numbers (1.06 xG vs 1.38) point toward AEK. The model's pick is Away (2) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Shakhtar
20%
Draws
40%
AEK
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Shakhtar come out ahead of AEK on wins alone.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this Champions League fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69.4%
Shakhtar Clean Sheet 17%
AEK Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shakhtar AEK
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 19 17
Draws 6 8
Losses 4 4
Goals Scored 2.1 2.1
Goals Conceded 0.79 0.83
Expected Goals (xG) 1.06 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 13, 2023 Club Friendly
AEK vs Shakhtar
5:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shakhtar 36 / 100
AEK 21 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shakhtar AEK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick AEK Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Shakhtar scored in 86% of their last 29 outings.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Shakhtar went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

AEK's defensive record shows goals conceded in 55% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Shakhtar VS AEK
1.88 Goals Scored 2.25
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shakhtar

(Home)
02 Oct
Shakhtar
3 : 0
Kryvbas
20 Sept
Shakhtar
3 : 0
LNZ Cherkasy
17 Sept
FC Vilkhivtsi
0 : 3
Shakhtar
14 Sept
Shakhtar
2 : 0
Ch. Odesa
10 Sept
PSV
1 : 1
Shakhtar
Page 1 of 6

AEK

(Away)
20 Sept
Volos
1 : 2
AEK
17 Sept
AEK
8 : 1
Panserraikos
13 Sept
Asteras Tripolis
1 : 1
AEK
08 Sept
AEK
1 : 0
LASK Linz
05 Sept
AEK
5 : 0
Aris
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 PSG 1 1 0 0 6:1 3
2 Bayern Munich 1 1 0 0 5:0 3
3 Barcelona 1 1 0 0 5:1 3
4 Manchester United 1 1 0 0 4:0 3
5 Como 1 1 0 0 4:1 3
6 VfB Stuttgart 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
7 Sporting CP 1 1 0 0 3:1 3
8 Manchester City 1 1 0 0 2:0 3
9 Aston Villa 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
10 Lens 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
11 Betis 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
12 Dortmund 1 1 0 0 3:2 3
13 Liverpool 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
14 Real Madrid 1 1 0 0 2:1 3
15 Arsenal 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
16 AEK 1 1 0 0 1:0 3
17 AS Roma 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
18 Shakhtar 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
19 PSV 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
20 Fenerbahce 1 0 1 0 1:1 1
21 Villarreal 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
22 Lille 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
23 Slavia Prague 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
24 Club Brugge 1 0 0 1 2:3 0
25 Inter 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
26 Atl. Madrid 1 0 0 1 1:2 0
27 Napoli 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
28 LASK Linz 1 0 0 1 0:1 0
29 Viking 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
30 Galatasaray 1 0 0 1 1:3 0
31 FC Porto 1 0 0 1 0:2 0
32 RB Leipzig 1 0 0 1 1:4 0
33 Feyenoord 1 0 0 1 1:5 0
34 Sabah Baku 1 0 0 1 0:4 0
35 Slovan Bratislava 1 0 0 1 1:6 0
36 Bodo/Glimt 1 0 0 1 0:5 0
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Champions League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)