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Shakhtar vs Dynamo Kyiv - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ukraine Ukraine

Ukrainian Cup
Tue, Oct 27, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 2-1. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. Recent numbers: Shakhtar at 2.15 goals for, 0.78 against; Dynamo Kyiv at 1.52 for, 1.07 against. Head-to-head, Shakhtar have won 3 to Dynamo Kyiv's 1, with 1 draws. They last met on May 3, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.63 xG vs 0.69) point toward Shakhtar. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
Shakhtar
15%
Draws
38%
Dynamo Kyiv
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shakhtar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Shakhtar lately — more wins on the board than Dynamo Kyiv.
  • 47% — that's where the model lands on Shakhtar taking it.
  • Shakhtar have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Shakhtar, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Shakhtar Clean Sheet 20%
Dynamo Kyiv Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shakhtar Dynamo Kyiv
Matches Played 27 27
Wins 19 16
Draws 4 4
Losses 4 7
Goals Scored 2.15 1.52
Goals Conceded 0.78 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 0.69
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 3, 2026 Premier League
Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar
1:2
Nov 2, 2025 Premier League
Shakhtar vs Dynamo Kyiv
3:1
Oct 29, 2025 Ukrainian Cup
Dynamo Kyiv vs Shakhtar
2:1
May 14, 2025 Ukrainian Cup
Shakhtar vs Dynamo Kyiv
2:1
Apr 27, 2025 Premier League
Shakhtar vs Dynamo Kyiv
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shakhtar 40 / 100
Dynamo Kyiv 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shakhtar Dynamo Kyiv

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shakhtar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shakhtar found the back of the net in 85% of recent matches (27 games).

These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Shakhtar stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Dynamo Kyiv's defensive record shows goals conceded in 56% of 27 matches.

Scoring Trends

Shakhtar VS Dynamo Kyiv
2.5 Goals Scored 1
0.38 Goals Conceded 0.75
100% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Shakhtar

(Home)
17 Oct
Shakhtar
2 : 1
Kolos Kovalivka
14 Oct
Shakhtar
3 : 1
AEK
09 Oct
Veres Rivne
0 : 3
Shakhtar
02 Oct
Shakhtar
3 : 0
Kryvbas
20 Sept
Shakhtar
3 : 0
LNZ Cherkasy
Page 1 of 6

Dynamo Kyiv

(Away)
18 Oct
Polissya Zhytomyr
3 : 1
Dynamo Kyiv
11 Oct
Dynamo Kyiv
1 : 0
Karpaty Lviv
19 Sept
Zorya
0 : 2
Dynamo Kyiv
14 Sept
Dynamo Kyiv
3 : 0
Epitsentr
10 Sept
Nyva Vinnytsya
0 : 1
Dynamo Kyiv
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Ch. Odesa 0
FC Vilkhivtsi 1
TBD -
Shakhtar -
Nyva Vinnytsya 3
Rukh Lviv 2
Dynamo Kyiv -
TBD -
Bukovyna 4
Nyva Ternopil 0
TBD -
LNZ Cherkasy -
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi 1
Victoria 3
Penuel Kryvyi Rih 0
Metalist Kharkiv 1
Kolos Polonne 1
Trostyanets 2
LSTM Lutsk 1
FC Chernihiv 2
Karbon Cherkasy 1
Pokuttia Kolomyia 0
Epitsentr 2
To4ka Odessa 1
TBD -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Lozova 1
Kudrivka 6
Novyi Rozdil 2
Atlet Kiev 1
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 2
Vilkhivtsi Ivano Frankivsk 1
Mayak Sarny 1
SC Poltava 0
Druzhba-Kozaky 3
Bazys Kochubiyivka 5
Reshetylivka 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 4
FC Kharkiv 9
Kalynivka 0
Dinaz Vyshgorod 0
Fenix Mariupol 6
Skala 1911 0
Zorya 6
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya 1
Olympia Savyntsi 2
Kryvbas 3
Rokyta 0
Kolos Kovalivka 3
UCSA 0
Karpaty Lviv 2
Obolon 0
Lokomotyv Kyiv 1
Probiy Horodenka 3
Bratslav Vinnytsia 0
Oleksandriya 2
Rebel Kyiv 0
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 4
Dnister Zalishchyky 0
Livyi Bereg 3
Kulikiv 2
Palmira Odesa 1
Veres Rivne 4
Inhulets 1
1/16-finals
FC Vilkhivtsi 0
Shakhtar 3
Nyva Vinnytsya 0
Dynamo Kyiv 1
Bukovyna 0
LNZ Cherkasy 1
Victoria 0
Metalist Kharkiv 1
Trostyanets 2
FC Chernihiv 4
Karbon Cherkasy 0
Epitsentr 3
Polissya Zhytomyr 2
Kudrivka 0
Novyi Rozdil 3
Ahrotekh Tyshkivka 1
Mayak Sarny 4
Bazys Kochubiyivka 1
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) 0
FC Kharkiv 2
Fenix Mariupol 0
Zorya 2
Olympia Savyntsi 0
Kryvbas 2
Kolos Kovalivka 2
Karpaty Lviv 3
Probiy Horodenka 1
Oleksandriya 2
Ahrobiznes Volochysk 1
Livyi Bereg 2
Kulikiv 0
Veres Rivne 1
1/8-finals
Shakhtar -
Dynamo Kyiv -
LNZ Cherkasy -
Metalist Kharkiv -
FC Chernihiv -
Epitsentr -
Polissya Zhytomyr -
Novyi Rozdil -
Mayak Sarny -
FC Kharkiv -
Zorya -
Kryvbas -
Karpaty Lviv -
Oleksandriya -
Livyi Bereg -
Veres Rivne -
Quarter-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Semi-finals
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
TBD -
Final
TBD -
TBD -