Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shamakhi vs Araz PFK Prediction & H2H Stats

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Shamakhi City Stadium, Shamakhi
Our Tip

Match Events

27' Event
Apolinario R.
(Penalty)
32' Event
Salyanskiy A.
34'
Kane M.

AI Match Summary

Shamakhi in this Premier League matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Shamakhi.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Shamakhi
35%
Draws
6%
Araz PFK
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Shamakhi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Shamakhi lately — more wins on the board than Araz PFK.
  • Model gives Shamakhi a 59% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 68%
Araz PFK Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shamakhi Araz PFK
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 10 8
Draws 9 5
Losses 11 16
Goals Scored 1.03 1.07
Goals Conceded 1.23 1.9
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Araz PFK
2:1
Mar 18, 2026 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Araz PFK
0:1
Dec 21, 2025 Premier League
Araz PFK vs Shamakhi
2:0
Sep 27, 2025 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Araz PFK
1:1
May 17, 2025 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Araz PFK
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shamakhi Compare

Avg xG / game 1.11
Avg xA / game 0.72

Araz PFK Compare

Top Goalscorer Salyanskiy A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shamakhi 95 / 100
Araz PFK 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shamakhi Araz PFK

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shamakhi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shamakhi went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Shamakhi scored in 60% of their last 30 outings.

Araz PFK let in goals in 76% of their last 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.80 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Shamakhi VS Araz PFK
1.13 Goals Scored 1
1.88 Goals Conceded 1.75
75% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shamakhi

(Home)
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1
Araz PFK
12 Sept
SumQayit FK
1 : 1
Shamakhi
04 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 4
Shamakhi
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
23 Aug
Turan
0 : 0
Shamakhi
Page 1 of 6

Araz PFK

(Away)
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1
Araz PFK
13 Sept
Araz PFK
2 : 2
Turan
06 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
3 : 2
Araz PFK
31 Aug
Araz PFK
0 : 1
Sabah Baku
23 Aug
Neftci Baku
5 : 0
Araz PFK
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 6 5 0 1 18:5 15
2 Sabah Baku 5 5 0 0 14:1 15
3 Qarabag Agdam 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
5 Zira FK 6 3 1 2 7:8 10
6 Shamakhi 6 2 3 1 8:6 9
7 Kapaz 5 2 1 2 4:7 7
8 Gabala 6 1 1 4 2:7 4
9 Imisli FK 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
10 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 2:11 3
11 SumQayit FK 5 0 2 3 4:8 2
12 Araz PFK 6 0 2 4 5:13 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)