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Shamakhi vs Safa Baku - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

Premier League Shamakhi City Stadium, Shamakhi
Fri, Oct 16, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shamakhi host Safa Baku in the Premier League. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Recent numbers: Shamakhi at 1.04 goals for, 1.25 against; Safa Baku at 1.36 for, 1.07 against. Past meetings favor Shamakhi slightly — 3-0-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 9, 2005, ending 3:0. The numbers (1.44 xG vs 1.06) point toward Safa Baku. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%
Shamakhi
30%
Draws
18%
Safa Baku
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shamakhi

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Safa Baku carry the better recent record into this one.
  • 52% — that's where the model lands on Shamakhi taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Shamakhi have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Shamakhi Clean Sheet 20%
Safa Baku Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shamakhi Safa Baku
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 9 12
Draws 9 8
Losses 10 8
Goals Scored 1.04 1.36
Goals Conceded 1.25 1.07
Expected Goals (xG) 1.44 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 9, 2005 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Safa Baku
3:0
Dec 8, 2004 Premier League
Safa Baku vs Shamakhi
1:4
Apr 17, 2004 Premier League
Shamakhi vs Safa Baku
0:0
Jul 29, 2003 Premier League
Safa Baku vs Shamakhi
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shamakhi 85 / 100
Safa Baku 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shamakhi Safa Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shamakhi Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Shamakhi stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Games between these two average 2.25 goals.

Safa Baku lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Shamakhi's goal record stands at 57% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Shamakhi VS Safa Baku
1.25 Goals Scored 0.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Shamakhi

(Home)
20 Sept
Shamakhi
2 : 1
Araz PFK
12 Sept
SumQayit FK
1 : 1
Shamakhi
04 Sept
Kapaz
1 : 4
Shamakhi
29 Aug
Gabala
0 : 0
Shamakhi
23 Aug
Turan
0 : 0
Shamakhi
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Safa Baku

(Away)
18 Sept
Qarabag Agdam
1 : 0
Safa Baku
14 Sept
Safa Baku
0 : 3
Sabah Baku
05 Sept
Neftci Baku
4 : 1
Safa Baku
29 Aug
Safa Baku
0 : 1
Imisli FK
22 Aug
Gabala
0 : 1
Safa Baku
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftci Baku 6 5 0 1 18:5 15
2 Sabah Baku 5 5 0 0 14:1 15
3 Qarabag Agdam 5 4 1 0 9:4 13
4 Turan 6 3 2 1 6:4 11
5 Zira FK 6 3 1 2 7:8 10
6 Shamakhi 6 2 3 1 8:6 9
7 Kapaz 5 2 1 2 4:7 7
8 Gabala 6 1 1 4 2:7 4
9 Imisli FK 6 1 1 4 6:11 4
10 Safa Baku 6 1 0 5 2:11 3
11 SumQayit FK 5 0 2 3 4:8 2
12 Araz PFK 6 0 2 4 5:13 2
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2027/2028 (Main)