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Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Tallaght Stadium, Dublin
Our Tip

Match Events

3' Event
Watts D.
(Penalty)
12'
Kilduff C.
13'
Kovalevskis M.

AI Match Summary

The Premier Division game between Shamrock Rovers and Dundalk finished 3-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Shamrock Rovers.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
Shamrock Rovers
30%
Draws
31%
Dundalk
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Shamrock Rovers

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Shamrock Rovers come out ahead of Dundalk on wins alone.
  • Model gives Shamrock Rovers a 39% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77.4%
Shamrock Rovers Clean Sheet 10%
Dundalk Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shamrock Rovers Dundalk
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 15 11
Draws 5 7
Losses 10 11
Goals Scored 1.63 1.76
Goals Conceded 1.3 1.66
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 7, 2026 Premier Division
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk
3:2
May 15, 2026 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
1:0
Feb 23, 2026 Premier Division
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk
1:1
Oct 27, 2024 Premier Division
Dundalk vs Shamrock Rovers
0:1
Jul 4, 2024 Premier Division
Shamrock Rovers vs Dundalk
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shamrock Rovers Compare

Top Goalscorer Noonan M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Afolabi J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Dundalk Compare

Top Goalscorer Cornwall R.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shamrock Rovers 56 / 100
Dundalk 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shamrock Rovers Dundalk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shamrock Rovers Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Dundalk's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

Shamrock Rovers scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Shamrock Rovers went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shamrock Rovers VS Dundalk
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
2 Goals Conceded 2.13
75% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Shamrock Rovers

(Home)
18 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
3 : 2
Waterford
11 Sept
St. Patricks
2 : 0
Shamrock Rovers
04 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
0 : 0
Shelbourne
30 Aug
Derry City
3 : 3
Shamrock Rovers
27 Aug
KuPS
1 : 0
Shamrock Rovers
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Dundalk

(Away)
18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3
Shelbourne
14 Sept
Dundalk
0 : 4
St. Patricks
11 Sept
Waterford
1 : 1
Dundalk
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
28 Aug
Drogheda
2 : 3
Dundalk
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Patricks 32 17 8 7 52:25 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 49:31 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 55:37 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 45:42 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 49:53 41
6 Shelbourne 32 9 13 10 42:45 40
7 Galway United 32 9 11 12 42:48 38
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 44:54 34
9 Drogheda 32 8 10 14 38:51 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 24:54 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)