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Shelbourne vs Derry City - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Tolka Park, Dublin
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Casey O.
50'
Lunney J.
57'
Sub
Odubeko M. In: Boyd S.
Out: Odubeko M.

AI Match Summary

Derry City in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Derry City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Shelbourne
20%
Draws
40%
Derry City
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Derry City have won more games recently than Shelbourne.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Shelbourne taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 37.6%
Shelbourne Clean Sheet 68%
Derry City Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shelbourne Derry City
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 10 12
Draws 11 9
Losses 9 10
Goals Scored 1.5 1.55
Goals Conceded 1.4 1.32
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.44
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Derry City
0:1
May 25, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
0:0
Apr 17, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Derry City
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shelbourne Compare

Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Duffy M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.31
Avg xA / game 0.8

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shelbourne 59 / 100
Derry City 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shelbourne Derry City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shelbourne Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shelbourne's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Derry City has conceded goals in 68% of their last 31 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Shelbourne has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shelbourne VS Derry City
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shelbourne

(Home)
30 Oct
Shelbourne
2 : 3
Waterford
23 Oct
Bohemians
0 : 1
Shelbourne
16 Oct
St. Patricks
1 : 2
Shelbourne
09 Oct
Shelbourne
5 : 1
Sligo Rovers
25 Sept
Galway United
1 : 1
Shelbourne
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Derry City

(Away)
08 Nov
Derry City
1 : 0
Waterford
30 Oct
Sligo Rovers
2 : 2
Derry City
23 Oct
Derry City
2 : 1
Dundalk
19 Oct
Derry City
1 : 0
St. Patricks
16 Oct
Drogheda
2 : 0
Derry City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shamrock Rovers 36 20 8 8 59:38 68
2 Bohemians 36 19 8 9 63:44 65
3 St. Patricks 36 17 9 10 55:31 60
4 Shelbourne 36 12 13 11 52:50 49
5 Derry City 36 11 15 10 50:47 48
6 Dundalk 36 11 12 13 55:59 45
7 Waterford 36 10 13 13 54:61 43
8 Galway United 36 10 12 14 46:53 42
9 Drogheda 36 10 10 16 44:57 40
10 Sligo Rovers 36 5 10 21 28:66 25
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)