Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shelbourne vs Derry City

Ireland Ireland

Premier Division Tolka Park, Dublin
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Casey O.
50'
Lunney J.
57'
Sub
Odubeko M. In: Boyd S.
Out: Odubeko M.

AI Match Summary

Derry City in this Premier Division matchup, with the score ending 0-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Derry City.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
Shelbourne
35%
Draws
45%
Derry City
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Derry City

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Derry City have won more games recently than Shelbourne.
  • 45% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 38.400000000000006%
Shelbourne Clean Sheet 12%
Derry City Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shelbourne Derry City
Matches Played 30 32
Wins 8 11
Draws 10 12
Losses 12 9
Goals Scored 1.43 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.6 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Derry City
0:1
May 25, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
0:0
Apr 17, 2026 Premier Division
Shelbourne vs Derry City
1:2
Mar 13, 2026 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
1:2
Sep 19, 2025 Premier Division
Derry City vs Shelbourne
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shelbourne Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Derry City Compare

Top Goalscorer Duffy M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shelbourne 35 / 100
Derry City 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shelbourne Derry City

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Derry City Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shelbourne's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Derry City has conceded goals in 69% of their last 32 outings.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

Shelbourne has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Shelbourne VS Derry City
0.75 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shelbourne

(Home)
18 Sept
Dundalk
2 : 3
Shelbourne
14 Sept
Shelbourne
1 : 2
Drogheda
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1
Derry City
04 Sept
Shamrock Rovers
0 : 0
Shelbourne
28 Aug
Galway United
1 : 1
Shelbourne
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Derry City

(Away)
18 Sept
Derry City
1 : 0
Galway United
14 Sept
Waterford
2 : 2
Derry City
11 Sept
Shelbourne
0 : 1
Derry City
06 Sept
Derry City
4 : 2
Dundalk
30 Aug
Derry City
3 : 3
Shamrock Rovers
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 St. Patricks 32 17 8 7 52:25 59
2 Shamrock Rovers 31 17 8 6 49:31 59
3 Bohemians 31 16 8 7 55:37 56
4 Derry City 32 9 14 9 45:42 41
5 Dundalk 32 10 11 11 49:53 41
6 Shelbourne 31 9 12 10 41:44 39
7 Galway United 31 9 10 12 41:47 37
8 Waterford 32 7 13 12 44:54 34
9 Drogheda 32 8 10 14 38:51 34
10 Sligo Rovers 32 5 8 19 24:54 23
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier Division (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 2027 (Main)