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Shimal vs MOIK Baku - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Wed, Dec 9, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shimal host MOIK Baku in the I Liqa. Little to choose between these two on current form. Shimal have averaged 1.17 scored and 2.3 conceded recently, against MOIK Baku's 1.4 scored and 1.7 conceded. Head-to-head, Shimal have won 0 to MOIK Baku's 2, with 3 draws. They last met on Sep 11, 2026, ending 1:1. Model xG sits at 1.25 vs 1.88, favoring MOIK Baku. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
Shimal
20%
Draws
47%
MOIK Baku
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: MOIK Baku

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • Shimal haven't matched MOIK Baku's recent run of results.
  • Model gives MOIK Baku a 47% chance of winning this.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Shimal Clean Sheet 10%
MOIK Baku Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimal MOIK Baku
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 8 12
Draws 5 6
Losses 17 12
Goals Scored 1.17 1.4
Goals Conceded 2.3 1.7
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 11, 2026 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
1:1
May 6, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs MOIK Baku
1:1
Dec 10, 2025 I Liqa
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
2:0
Sep 19, 2025 I Liqa
Shimal vs MOIK Baku
1:1
Oct 29, 2024 Azerbaijan Cup
MOIK Baku vs Shimal
3:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimal 18 / 100
MOIK Baku 56 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimal MOIK Baku

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick MOIK Baku Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: MOIK Baku conceded in 83% of 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.40 goals per match.

Recent resilience: Shimal stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Shimal's goal record stands at 53% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Shimal VS MOIK Baku
1.63 Goals Scored 2.13
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimal

(Home)
05 Nov
Karvan
4 : 1
Shimal
27 Oct
Shimal
0 : 6
Araz PFK
22 Oct
Shimal
5 : 2
Baku Sporting
15 Oct
Mingachevir
1 : 4
Shimal
09 Oct
Shimal
1 : 1
FC Khankendi
Page 1 of 6

MOIK Baku

(Away)
05 Nov
Zaqatala PFK
1 : 1
MOIK Baku
28 Oct
MOIK Baku
1 : 9
Sahdag Qusar
22 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 1
Karvan
16 Oct
Baku Sporting
1 : 3
MOIK Baku
09 Oct
MOIK Baku
3 : 0
Mingachevir
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Gancabasar 7 5 1 1 19:6 16
2 Sahdag Qusar 6 5 0 1 14:2 15
3 MOIK Baku 7 4 2 1 13:5 14
4 Karvan 7 4 1 2 14:8 13
5 Sabail 7 3 3 1 10:7 12
6 Shimal 7 2 2 3 14:15 8
7 FC Khankendi 7 1 3 3 5:8 6
8 Zaqatala PFK 7 1 2 4 7:22 5
9 Mingachevir 6 1 1 4 5:14 4
10 Baku Sporting 7 0 1 6 4:18 1
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)