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Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar Prediction & H2H Stats

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Aliyev V.
65'
Aliyev V.

AI Match Summary

The I Liqa 2025/2026 game between Shimal and Sahdag Qusar finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sahdag Qusar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Shimal
30%
Draws
43%
Sahdag Qusar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sahdag Qusar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Sahdag Qusar carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Sahdag Qusar are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sahdag Qusar have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%
Shimal Clean Sheet 19%
Sahdag Qusar Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimal Sahdag Qusar
Matches Played 30 42
Wins 6 21
Draws 5 8
Losses 19 13
Goals Scored 0.9 1.55
Goals Conceded 2.27 1
Expected Goals (xG) 0.56 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
1:4
Apr 3, 2026 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Shimal
1:0
Feb 19, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
0:1
Nov 6, 2025 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Shimal
4:2
Oct 29, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimal Compare

Avg xG / game 0.43
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sahdag Qusar Compare

Top Goalscorer Aliyev V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimal 12 / 100
Sahdag Qusar 76 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimal Sahdag Qusar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sahdag Qusar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Shimal stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Shimal found the back of the net in 50% of recent matches (30 games).

Sahdag Qusar let in goals in 55% of their last 42 matches.

Scoring Trends

Shimal VS Sahdag Qusar
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimal

(Home)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
Page 1 of 6

Sahdag Qusar

(Away)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
22 May
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 1
Baku Sporting
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
Page 1 of 9

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Safa Baku 27 16 9 2 52:21 57
2 Mingachevir 27 15 6 6 55:27 51
3 Sabail 27 14 8 5 46:21 50
4 Baku Sporting 27 13 10 4 40:23 49
5 Sahdag Qusar 27 12 7 8 36:27 43
6 MOIK Baku 27 9 6 12 33:40 33
7 Zaqatala PFK 27 8 4 15 27:44 28
8 Gancabasar 27 7 3 17 40:56 24
9 Shimal 27 5 5 17 23:61 20
10 Difai Agsu 27 4 6 17 28:60 18
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa 2025/2026 (Relegation)