Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar

Azerbaijan Azerbaijan

I Liqa
Our Tip

Match Events

7' Event
Ismayilov U.
37' Event
Mammadov S.
74' Event
Kalbaliyev C.

AI Match Summary

Sahdag Qusar in this I Liqa matchup, with the score ending 1-4 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sahdag Qusar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Shimal
30%
Draws
43%
Sahdag Qusar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Sahdag Qusar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Sahdag Qusar have won more games recently than Shimal.
  • Sahdag Qusar are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular I Liqa form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Sahdag Qusar have taken 5 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Shimal Clean Sheet 18%
Sahdag Qusar Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimal Sahdag Qusar
Matches Played 31 30
Wins 6 15
Draws 6 7
Losses 19 8
Goals Scored 0.9 1.4
Goals Conceded 2.23 0.87
Expected Goals (xG) 0.51 1.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
1:4
Apr 3, 2026 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Shimal
1:0
Feb 19, 2026 I Liqa
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
0:1
Nov 6, 2025 I Liqa
Sahdag Qusar vs Shimal
4:2
Oct 29, 2025 Azerbaijan Cup
Shimal vs Sahdag Qusar
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimal Compare

Top Goalscorer Kalbaliyev C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.39
Avg xA / game 0.26

Sahdag Qusar Compare

Top Goalscorer Ismayilov U.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mammadov S.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.19
Avg xA / game 0.73

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimal 10 / 100
Sahdag Qusar 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimal Sahdag Qusar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Sahdag Qusar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Shimal stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Shimal found the back of the net in 52% of recent matches (31 games).

Sahdag Qusar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 53% of 30 matches.

Scoring Trends

Shimal VS Sahdag Qusar
0.88 Goals Scored 1.13
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.13
63% Over 1.5 38%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimal

(Home)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
11 Sept
MOIK Baku
1 : 1
Shimal
04 Sept
Shimal
1 : 2
Gancabasar
27 May
Shimal
2 : 1
Lokbatan
21 May
Gancabasar
2 : 3
Shimal
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Sahdag Qusar

(Away)
17 Sept
Shimal
1 : 4
Sahdag Qusar
09 Sept
Sahdag Qusar
2 : 0
Karvan
03 Sept
MOIK Baku
0 : 1
Sahdag Qusar
22 May
Sahdag Qusar
1 : 1
Baku Sporting
15 May
Sabail
0 : 0
Sahdag Qusar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sahdag Qusar 3 3 0 0 7:1 9
2 Gancabasar 3 3 0 0 7:2 9
3 Sabail 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
4 Karvan 3 2 0 1 6:2 6
5 MOIK Baku 3 1 1 1 3:2 4
6 Zaqatala PFK 3 1 1 1 5:5 4
7 FC Khankendi 3 0 1 2 2:5 1
8 Mingachevir 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
9 Shimal 3 0 1 2 3:7 1
10 Baku Sporting 3 0 0 3 0:7 0
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Premier League (Relegation)
Relegation - I Liqa (Relegation)