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Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J1 League IAI Stadium Nihondaira, Shizuoka
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
04:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shimizu S-Pulse host Gamba Osaka in the J1 League. Shimizu S-Pulse are expected to control this from the start. Gamba Osaka have shipped 1.36 goals a game lately, while Shimizu S-Pulse have conceded 1.21 and scored 1.32. Past meetings favor Gamba Osaka slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 24, 2026, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.20 xG vs 1.00) point toward Shimizu S-Pulse. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

57%
Shimizu S-Pulse
15%
Draws
28%
Gamba Osaka
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shimizu S-Pulse

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

57% / Medium Confidence
  • Gamba Osaka carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Shimizu S-Pulse's way, sitting at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73%
Shimizu S-Pulse Clean Sheet 20%
Gamba Osaka Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimizu S-Pulse Gamba Osaka
Matches Played 28 33
Wins 14 15
Draws 3 5
Losses 11 13
Goals Scored 1.32 1.85
Goals Conceded 1.21 1.36
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka
1:2
Feb 28, 2026 J1 League
Gamba Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
3:2
Jun 15, 2025 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka
0:0
Mar 8, 2025 J1 League
Gamba Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
1:0
Aug 14, 2022 J1 League
Gamba Osaka vs Shimizu S-Pulse
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimizu S-Pulse 49 / 100
Gamba Osaka 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimizu S-Pulse Gamba Osaka

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Shimizu S-Pulse Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shimizu S-Pulse's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Gamba Osaka's defensive record shows goals conceded in 73% of 33 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Shimizu S-Pulse went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shimizu S-Pulse VS Gamba Osaka
1.13 Goals Scored 1.88
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Shimizu S-Pulse

(Home)
07 Oct
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
V-Varen Nagasaki
29 Sept
Kanazawa
0 : 2
Shimizu S-Pulse
19 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
2 : 1
Chiba
12 Sept
Shimizu S-Pulse
1 : 0
Avispa Fukuoka
06 Sept
Kawasaki Frontale
3 : 1
Shimizu S-Pulse
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Gamba Osaka

(Away)
09 Oct
Kashima Antlers
2 : 0
Gamba Osaka
03 Oct
Kashiwa Reysol
5 : 4
Gamba Osaka
23 Sept
Gamba Osaka
5 : 0
Tokushima
20 Sept
Gamba Osaka
0 : 1
Vissel Kobe
15 Sept
Gamba Osaka
4 : 1
Cong An Ha Noi
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kashiwa Reysol 9 7 0 2 21:14 21
2 Vissel Kobe 9 6 1 2 14:9 19
3 Sanfrecce Hiroshima 8 5 2 1 20:6 17
4 Machida Zelvia 8 5 2 1 21:10 17
5 FC Tokyo 8 5 2 1 14:8 17
6 Kashima Antlers 9 5 1 3 19:16 16
7 Yokohama F. Marinos 8 4 2 2 13:9 14
8 Kawasaki Frontale 8 3 4 1 16:12 13
9 Okayama 8 4 1 3 11:10 13
10 Urawa Reds 8 4 0 4 16:18 12
11 Cerezo Osaka 8 3 2 3 7:12 11
12 Shimizu S-Pulse 8 3 1 4 6:8 10
13 Mito 8 2 3 3 11:11 9
14 Kyoto 8 2 2 4 11:15 8
15 V-Varen Nagasaki 8 2 2 4 10:15 8
16 Nagoya Grampus 8 2 0 6 7:14 6
17 Gamba Osaka 9 1 3 5 8:16 6
18 Avispa Fukuoka 8 1 1 6 9:12 4
19 Verdy 8 0 4 4 4:12 4
20 Chiba 8 1 1 6 7:18 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)