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Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki

Japan Japan

J1 League 2026 IAI Stadium Nihondaira
Our Tip

Match Events

8'
Sumiyoshi J.
21' Event
Shimamoto Y.
27'
Yamada R.

AI Match Summary

V-Varen Nagasaki in this J1 League 2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored V-Varen Nagasaki.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

30%
Shimizu S-Pulse
39%
Draws
31%
V-Varen Nagasaki
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Shimizu S-Pulse haven't matched V-Varen Nagasaki's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • Regular J1 League 2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.2%
Shimizu S-Pulse Clean Sheet 68%
V-Varen Nagasaki Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shimizu S-Pulse V-Varen Nagasaki
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 14
Draws 2 2
Losses 15 14
Goals Scored 1.13 1.5
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 J1 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:2
Apr 5, 2026 J1 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse
0:3
Sep 7, 2024 J2 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki
1:1
Mar 10, 2024 J2 League
V-Varen Nagasaki vs Shimizu S-Pulse
4:1
Jul 1, 2023 J2 League
Shimizu S-Pulse vs V-Varen Nagasaki
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shimizu S-Pulse Compare

Top Goalscorer Shimamoto Y.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

V-Varen Nagasaki Compare

Top Goalscorer Thiago
1 Goals
Assists Leader Hasegawa M.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shimizu S-Pulse 41 / 100
V-Varen Nagasaki 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shimizu S-Pulse V-Varen Nagasaki

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SHI Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

V-Varen Nagasaki has conceded goals in 80% of their last 30 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.60 goals per match.

Shimizu S-Pulse found the back of the net in 73% of recent matches (30 games).

Shimizu S-Pulse went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shimizu S-Pulse VS V-Varen Nagasaki
1.13 Goals Scored 1.5
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kashima Antlers18150331:1145
2FC Tokyo18130532:1837
3Machida Zelvia18130528:2237
4Kawasaki Frontale18100826:2828
5Verdy18100822:2628
6Urawa Reds18701125:2225
7Yokohama F. Marinos18601228:3120
8Kashiwa Reysol18701122:2420
9Mito18601223:3918
10Chiba18301518:3412
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Vissel Kobe18110729:2535
2Cerezo Osaka18110730:2131
3Nagoya Grampus18100833:3131
4Sanfrecce Hiroshima18100831:2330
5Gamba Osaka18100831:2528
6Okayama18801026:2926
7Shimizu S-Pulse18801023:2524
8Kyoto18801022:2823
9V-Varen Nagasaki18701121:2921
10Avispa Fukuoka18701121:3121