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Shkendija Tetovo vs Vardar - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

North Macedonia North Macedonia

1. MFL
Sat, Oct 24, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shkendija Tetovo host Vardar in the 1. MFL. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Recent numbers: Shkendija Tetovo at 1.88 goals for, 1.16 against; Vardar at 2.1 for, 0.93 against. Past meetings favor Shkendija Tetovo slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Aug 9, 2026, ending 0:2. The numbers (1.56 xG vs 1.56) point toward Shkendija Tetovo. AI prediction: Away (2) Win — correct score tipped at 1-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%
Shkendija Tetovo
30%
Draws
43%
Vardar
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Vardar

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Shkendija Tetovo come out ahead of Vardar on wins alone.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on Vardar taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.8%
Shkendija Tetovo Clean Sheet 15%
Vardar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shkendija Tetovo Vardar
Matches Played 32 29
Wins 19 18
Draws 4 4
Losses 9 7
Goals Scored 1.88 2.1
Goals Conceded 1.16 0.93
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 1.56
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 9, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
0:2
May 23, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
3:0
Mar 5, 2026 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
0:1
Oct 27, 2025 1. MFL
Shkendija Tetovo vs Vardar
0:1
Mar 14, 2025 1. MFL
Vardar vs Shkendija Tetovo
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shkendija Tetovo 23 / 100
Vardar 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shkendija Tetovo Vardar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Vardar Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shkendija Tetovo's goal record stands at 81% scoring rate across 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 1.80 goals as a typical output.

Shkendija Tetovo went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Vardar's defensive record shows goals conceded in 52% of 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Shkendija Tetovo VS Vardar
2.13 Goals Scored 2.13
1 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Shkendija Tetovo

(Home)
03 Oct
Llapi
1 : 0
Shkendija Tetovo
26 Sept
Kamjani
0 : 3
Shkendija Tetovo
18 Sept
Shkendija Tetovo
4 : 1
Bashkimi
11 Sept
Arsimi
2 : 2
Shkendija Tetovo
04 Sept
Shkendija Tetovo
1 : 3
Tikves
Page 1 of 7

Vardar

(Away)
19 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Shkendija Haracine
12 Sept
Bashkimi
3 : 3
Vardar
07 Sept
Vardar
2 : 0
Arsimi
03 Sept
Ovce Pole
0 : 5
Vardar
31 Aug
Tikves
1 : 1
Vardar
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shkendija Tetovo 8 6 1 1 20:8 19
2 Struga 8 5 2 1 19:5 17
3 Vardar 8 4 2 2 14:8 14
4 Tikves 8 3 4 1 17:7 13
5 Shkendija Haracine 8 4 1 3 6:9 13
6 Bregalnica Stip 8 3 1 4 11:13 10
7 Sileks 8 2 3 3 13:10 9
8 Arsimi 8 2 2 4 6:19 8
9 Bashkimi 8 1 1 6 7:25 4
10 FK Skopje 8 0 3 5 3:12 3
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - 1. MFL (Relegation)
Relegation - 2. MFL 2027/2028 (Main)