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Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Japan Japan

J2 League Lemon Gas Stadium, Hiratsuka
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
0 - 0
09:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Shonan Bellmare host Albirex Niigata in the J2 League. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Albirex Niigata have shipped 1.34 goals a game lately, while Shonan Bellmare have conceded 1.28 and scored 1.31. Head-to-head, Shonan Bellmare have won 2 to Albirex Niigata's 2, with 1 draws. They last met on Nov 8, 2025, ending 5:2. xG projections (1.69 - 1.63) back Albirex Niigata to edge this. Under 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Shonan Bellmare
30%
Draws
39%
Albirex Niigata
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Albirex Niigata

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Albirex Niigata carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
  • Regular J2 League form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.8%
Shonan Bellmare Clean Sheet 14%
Albirex Niigata Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Shonan Bellmare Albirex Niigata
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 14 17
Draws 4 1
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 1.31 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.28 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 8, 2025 J1 League
Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata
5:2
May 25, 2025 J1 League
Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare
2:1
Sep 14, 2024 J1 League
Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare
3:1
May 19, 2024 J1 League
Shonan Bellmare vs Albirex Niigata
2:1
Aug 12, 2023 J1 League
Albirex Niigata vs Shonan Bellmare
2:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shonan Bellmare 31 / 100
Albirex Niigata 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Shonan Bellmare Albirex Niigata

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Albirex Niigata Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Shonan Bellmare scored in 83% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 4.20 goals when they meet.

Albirex Niigata has conceded goals in 69% of their last 29 outings.

Shonan Bellmare went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Shonan Bellmare VS Albirex Niigata
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
2 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Shonan Bellmare

(Home)
07 Oct
FC Tokyo
4 : 0
Shonan Bellmare
03 Oct
Fujieda MYFC
1 : 1
Shonan Bellmare
26 Sept
Imabari
1 : 2
Shonan Bellmare
19 Sept
Shonan Bellmare
1 : 1
Blaublitz
12 Sept
Vanraure
0 : 1
Shonan Bellmare
Page 1 of 6

Albirex Niigata

(Away)
03 Oct
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1
Tokushima
29 Sept
Matsumoto Yamaga
1 : 0
Albirex Niigata
26 Sept
Blaublitz
2 : 2
Albirex Niigata
19 Sept
Albirex Niigata
2 : 1
Iwata
13 Sept
Albirex Niigata
1 : 0
Montedio Yamagata
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Omiya Ardija 10 5 5 0 20:9 20
2 Vegalta Sendai 9 6 2 1 17:8 20
3 Albirex Niigata 9 6 1 2 13:13 19
4 Toyama 9 5 2 2 18:9 17
5 Yokohama FC 10 5 2 3 19:13 17
6 Shonan Bellmare 9 4 4 1 10:8 16
7 Oita Trinita 10 3 5 2 11:8 14
8 Fujieda MYFC 10 3 4 3 13:11 13
9 Blaublitz 9 3 4 2 12:10 13
10 Iwata 10 4 1 5 12:13 13
11 Tokushima 10 4 1 5 10:12 13
12 Montedio Yamagata 9 4 0 5 11:8 12
13 Tegevajaro Miyazaki 9 3 3 3 13:13 12
14 Sagan Tosu 10 3 2 5 9:12 11
15 Tochigi City 10 3 1 6 16:17 10
16 Imabari 10 3 1 6 11:19 10
17 Kofu 10 3 1 6 9:18 10
18 Vanraure 10 3 1 6 6:17 10
19 Iwaki 9 3 0 6 12:17 9
20 Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo 10 2 2 6 12:19 8
Promotion - J1 League 2027/2028 (Main)
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Relegation - J3 League 2027/2028 (Main)