Sport Picks

Japan

J2/J3 League Lemon Gas Stadium

Tochigi SC

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Shonan Bellmare play Tochigi SC in the J2/J3 League. It looks like a close match. Recently, Shonan Bellmare averaged 1.34 goals scored and 1.17 conceded. Tochigi SC averaged 1.27 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. In past meetings, Shonan Bellmare won 5, Tochigi SC won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 29, 2026 ended 1:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.31 for Shonan Bellmare and 1.44 for Tochigi SC. This points to a Shonan Bellmare double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%

Shonan Bellmare

15%

Draws

33%

Tochigi SC

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Shonan Bellmare

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

Shonan Bellmare picked up more points recently compared to Tochigi SC.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.31 vs 1.44 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 59%

Over 3.5 Goals 35%

Over 4.5 Goals 18%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 55%

Shonan Bellmare Clean Sheet 16%

Tochigi SC Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Shonan Bellmare	Tochigi SC
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	13	11
Draws	2	2
Losses	14	17
Goals Scored	1.34	1.27
Goals Conceded	1.17	1.4
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 29, 2026 J2/J3 League

Tochigi SC vs Shonan Bellmare

Possession: 52% - 58% Cards: 1 - 3

1:2

Apr 4, 2026 J2/J3 League

Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 52% - 46% Cards: 3 - 2

2:1

Aug 17, 2014 J2 League

Tochigi SC vs Shonan Bellmare

Possession: 40% - 42% Cards: 1 - 1

0:3

May 6, 2014 J2 League

Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 48% - 47% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Aug 26, 2012 J2 League

Shonan Bellmare vs Tochigi SC

Possession: 46% - 50% Cards: 1 - 1

2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Shonan Bellmare Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Tochigi SC Compare

Top Goalscorer Nakano K.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Shonan Bellmare 50 / 100

Tochigi SC 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Shonan Bellmare Tochigi SC

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Shonan Bellmare or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18%

2.27

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11.5%

1.89

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Shonan Bellmare attacking → ← attacking Tochigi SC

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Shonan Bellmare scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Tochigi SC let in goals in 77% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Shonan Bellmare went unbeaten in 0 of their last 5 games.

Tochigi SC lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

41 Points in last 5 35

1.00 Goals expected (xG) 1.38

1.50 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.63

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Vegalta Sendai	18	16	2	37:15	43
2	Blaublitz	18	11	7	23:16	35
3	Shonan Bellmare	18	11	7	28:20	31
4	Yokohama FC	18	10	8	36:28	29
5	SC Sagamihara	18	9	9	33:36	28
6	Thespakusatsu Gunma	18	7	11	27:39	23
7	Montedio Yamagata	18	8	10	22:25	22
8	Tochigi City	18	7	11	22:35	21
9	Vanraure	17	5	12	16:23	18
10	Tochigi SC	17	5	12	24:31	17

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Kofu	17	11	6	20:12	33
2	Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo	18	11	7	28:22	31
3	Iwaki	18	11	7	26:20	31
4	Omiya Ardija	18	10	8	39:29	30
5	Fujieda MYFC	18	9	9	24:23	30
6	Gifu	17	9	8	23:25	27
7	Matsumoto Yamaga	18	8	10	33:25	26
8	Iwata	18	9	9	20:25	25
9	Fukushima United	18	6	12	30:43	18
10	Nagano Parceiro	18	5	13	17:36	16

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Toyama	18	13	5	40:26	38
2	Albirex Niigata	18	12	6	24:19	35
3	Tokushima	18	11	7	38:23	32
4	Kochi United	18	10	8	25:23	30
5	Ehime	18	9	9	26:20	28
6	Kanazawa	18	10	8	20:23	27
7	Nara Club	18	7	11	27:36	21
8	FC Osaka	18	6	12	18:23	20
9	Imabari	18	6	12	15:21	20
10	Kamatamare Sanuki	18	6	12	15:34	19

Pos	Team	P	W	L	GD	Pts
1	Tegevajaro Miyazaki	18	15	3	35:13	47
2	Kagoshima United	18	12	6	27:16	33
3	Sagan Tosu	18	10	8	26:18	32
4	Renofa Yamaguchi	18	10	8	27:24	29
5	Kumamoto	18	9	9	21:21	27
6	Gainare Tottori	18	10	8	24:25	27
7	Oita Trinita	18	7	11	19:20	22
8	Reilac Shiga	18	7	11	16:29	21
9	Ryukyu	18	6	12	17:28	17
10	Giravanz Kitakyushu	18	4	14	17:35	15