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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw Prediction & H2H Stats

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group IV
Our Tip

Match Events

28' Event
Maj A.
76'
Czerech P.
76'
Czerech P.

AI Match Summary

The III Liga - Group IV game between Siarka Tarnobrzeg and Jaroslaw finished 1-3, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Jaroslaw.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
20%
Draws
40%
Jaroslaw
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Jaroslaw carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Jaroslaw are the model's pick here, at 50%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Clean Sheet 10%
Jaroslaw Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Siarka Tarnobrzeg Jaroslaw
Matches Played 34 27
Wins 13 14
Draws 8 6
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 1.68 2.3
Goals Conceded 1.44 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 19, 2026 III Liga - Group IV
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Jaroslaw
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Siarka Tarnobrzeg Compare

Top Goalscorer Maj A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Jaroslaw Compare

Top Goalscorer Podstolak M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Wrona K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 22 / 100
Jaroslaw 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Jaroslaw

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Jaroslaw Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Jaroslaw let in goals in 85% of their last 27 matches.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scored in 76% of their last 34 games.

Solid form: Siarka Tarnobrzeg remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Siarka Tarnobrzeg VS Jaroslaw
1.5 Goals Scored 2.75
1.25 Goals Conceded 1.63
75% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

(Home)
26 Sept
Star Starachowice
4 : 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
19 Sept
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2 : 0
Biala Podlaska
12 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
05 Sept
KS Wieczysta Krakow II
0 : 2
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
01 Sept
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
3 : 2
Zaglebie
Page 1 of 7

Jaroslaw

(Away)
27 Sept
Moravia Morawica
2 : 2
Jaroslaw
19 Sept
Jaroslaw
5 : 2
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
12 Sept
Wislanie Skawina
3 : 1
Jaroslaw
05 Sept
Jaroslaw
6 : 2
Korona Kielce II
29 Aug
Jaroslaw
3 : 0
Star Starachowice
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chelmianka Chelm 10 8 2 0 16:3 26
2 Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 10 5 4 1 15:8 19
3 Czarni Polaniec 10 6 1 3 17:15 19
4 Wisloka Debica 10 6 1 3 14:12 19
5 Wislanie Skawina 10 5 2 3 15:10 17
6 Jaroslaw 10 5 2 3 26:17 17
7 Naprzod Jedrzejow 10 5 2 3 24:20 17
8 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 10 4 2 4 13:13 14
9 Hetman Zamosc 10 3 4 3 18:18 13
10 Wisla II 10 3 4 3 13:13 13
11 Kolbuszowa Dolna 10 2 6 2 10:10 12
12 Biala Podlaska 10 3 2 5 8:11 11
13 Busko-Zdroj 10 3 2 5 14:21 11
14 Star Starachowice 10 2 4 4 11:15 10
15 Korona Kielce II 10 2 2 6 21:26 8
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 10 2 2 6 9:14 8
17 Moravia Morawica 10 2 1 7 11:20 7
18 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow 10 2 1 7 10:19 7
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)