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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Poland Poland

III Liga - Group IV
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
12:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Siarka Tarnobrzeg host Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow in the III Liga - Group IV. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow have shipped 1.65 goals a game lately, while Siarka Tarnobrzeg have conceded 1.5 and scored 1.5. Head-to-head, Siarka Tarnobrzeg have won 4 to Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Mar 7, 2026, ending 3:1. xG projections (1.20 - 1.00) back Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow to edge this. AI prediction: Draw (X). Expect a competitive, tight affair.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

49%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
15%
Draws
36%
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow haven't matched Siarka Tarnobrzeg's recent run of results.
  • Siarka Tarnobrzeg are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular III Liga - Group IV form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Siarka Tarnobrzeg here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Clean Sheet 20%
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Siarka Tarnobrzeg Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
Matches Played 32 26
Wins 11 7
Draws 8 5
Losses 13 14
Goals Scored 1.5 1.35
Goals Conceded 1.5 1.65
Expected Goals (xG) 1.20 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 7, 2026 III Liga - Group IV
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
3:1
Aug 23, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2:2
May 3, 2025 III Liga - Group IV
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1:6
Jan 25, 2025 Club Friendly
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
1:0
Oct 5, 2024 III Liga - Group IV
Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 36 / 100
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Siarka Tarnobrzeg Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow conceded in 85% of 26 recent games.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scored in 78% of their last 32 games.

Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow's recent record shows 4 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

Siarka Tarnobrzeg VS Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
1.38 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

(Home)
09 Oct
Wislanie Skawina
4 : 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
03 Oct
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1 : 2
Korona Kielce II
26 Sept
Star Starachowice
4 : 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
19 Sept
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2 : 0
Biala Podlaska
12 Sept
Chelmianka Chelm
1 : 1
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
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Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow

(Away)
02 Oct
Wisloka Debica
2 : 1
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
26 Sept
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
0 : 1
Kolbuszowa Dolna
19 Sept
Jaroslaw
5 : 2
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
12 Sept
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
2 : 1
Busko-Zdroj
05 Sept
Czarni Polaniec
3 : 0
Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Chelmianka Chelm 11 8 3 0 18:5 27
2 Wisloka Debica 11 7 1 3 16:13 22
3 Wislanie Skawina 12 6 2 4 19:12 20
4 Naprzod Jedrzejow 11 6 2 3 27:21 20
5 Czarni Polaniec 11 6 2 3 18:16 20
6 Ostrowiec Swietokrzyski 11 5 5 1 16:9 20
7 Jaroslaw 12 5 2 5 28:22 17
8 Wisla II 12 4 4 4 15:17 16
9 Siarka Tarnobrzeg 12 4 2 6 15:19 14
10 Hetman Zamosc 11 3 5 3 20:20 14
11 Busko-Zdroj 11 4 2 5 17:21 14
12 Kolbuszowa Dolna 11 2 7 2 12:12 13
13 Biala Podlaska 11 3 3 5 10:13 12
14 Korona Kielce II 11 3 2 6 23:27 11
15 Star Starachowice 11 2 5 4 13:17 11
16 KS Wieczysta Krakow II 11 3 2 6 10:14 11
17 Moravia Morawica 11 2 2 7 13:22 8
18 Pogon-Sokol Lubaczow 11 2 1 8 11:21 7
Promotion - Division 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Division 2 (Relegation - Play Offs)