Sport Picks
Match Events
15'
15'
Lipari M.
30'
30'
Ampollini F.
AI Match Summary
The Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 game between Siena and Grosseto finished 1-1.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
35%
25%
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Siena
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
40%
/ Low Confidence
- Grosseto carry the better recent record into this one.
- 40% — that's where the model lands on Siena taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 67%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
Siena Clean Sheet 68%
Grosseto Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Siena | Grosseto |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 29 |
| Wins | 13 | 14 |
| Draws | 8 | 7 |
| Losses | 8 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.72 | 1.48 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.24 | 0.93 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.77 | 1.28 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 2, 2026 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Grosseto
1:1
Nov 23, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Siena
1:1
May 4, 2025 Serie D - Group E
Grosseto vs Siena
1:1
Dec 22, 2024 Serie D - Group E
Siena vs Grosseto
0:1
Apr 3, 2022 Serie C - Group B
Grosseto vs Siena
0:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Siena Compare
Top Goalscorer Lipari M.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.89
Grosseto Compare
Top Goalscorer Ampollini F.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.16
Avg xA / game 0.71
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Siena 59 / 100
Grosseto 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Siena Grosseto
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Siena Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Siena's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.
Grosseto's defensive record shows goals conceded in 62% of 29 matches.
Solid form: Siena remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Games between these two average 1.40 goals.
Scoring Trends
Siena VS Grosseto
2.29 Goals Scored 1.13
1.43 Goals Conceded 1.25
71% Over 1.5 63%
57% Over 2.5 50%
57% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Siena
(Home) 31 Jul
Siena
2 : 0 Scandicci
10 May
Prato
3 : 1 Siena
03 May
Siena
4 : 4 Sporting Trestina
26 Apr
Camaiore Calcio
2 : 5 Siena
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0 Montevarchi
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31 Jul
Siena
2 : 0 Scandicci
03 May
Siena
4 : 4 Sporting Trestina
19 Apr
Siena
0 : 0 Montevarchi
02 Apr
Siena
1 : 1 Grosseto
22 Mar
Siena
3 : 2 Foligno
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Grosseto
(Away) 14 Aug
Grosseto
2 : 3 Guidonia 1937
08 Aug
Grosseto
3 : 1 Terranuova Traiana
05 Aug
Grosseto
2 : 2 Tau
02 Aug
Perugia
1 : 1 Grosseto
29 Jul
Grosseto
1 : 2 San Donato Tavarnelle
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02 Aug
Perugia
1 : 1 Grosseto
17 May
Desenzano Calvina
0 : 1 Grosseto
02 May
Ghiviborgo
0 : 3 Grosseto
19 Apr
Prato
1 : 0 Grosseto
02 Apr
Siena
1 : 1 Grosseto
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grosseto | 34 | 22 | 6 | 6 | 58:25 | 72 |
| 2 | Tau | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 53:33 | 63 |
| 3 | Prato | 34 | 20 | 5 | 9 | 49:29 | 63 |
| 4 | Siena | 34 | 17 | 9 | 8 | 57:35 | 60 |
| 5 | Seravezza Pozzi | 34 | 15 | 12 | 7 | 42:29 | 57 |
| 6 | Terranuova Traiana | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 28:30 | 51 |
| 7 | Foligno | 34 | 14 | 9 | 11 | 45:37 | 51 |
| 8 | Scandicci | 34 | 11 | 15 | 8 | 39:32 | 48 |
| 9 | Montevarchi | 34 | 10 | 16 | 8 | 28:32 | 46 |
| 10 | Sporting Trestina | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 40:42 | 42 |
| 11 | San Donato Tavarnelle | 34 | 9 | 13 | 12 | 30:35 | 40 |
| 12 | Ghiviborgo | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 42:44 | 40 |
| 13 | Orvietana | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 33:37 | 38 |
| 14 | Follonica Gavorrano | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:49 | 37 |
| 15 | Camaiore Calcio | 34 | 9 | 8 | 17 | 41:54 | 35 |
| 16 | Poggibonsi | 34 | 7 | 10 | 17 | 29:46 | 31 |
| 17 | Cannara | 34 | 6 | 8 | 20 | 24:59 | 26 |
| 18 | Vivi Altotevere Sansepolcro | 34 | 2 | 16 | 16 | 20:46 | 22 |
Promotion - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Serie D - Group E 2025/2026 (Play Out)
