Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Simba vs Azam

Tanzania Tanzania

Federation Cup KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam
Our Tip

Match Events

24'
45'
50'

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 1-0. The second leg ended 1-0.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Simba
15%
Draws
34%
Azam
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Simba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Simba carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Simba a 51% chance of winning this.
  • Simba have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Azam, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 23.200000000000003%
Simba Clean Sheet 68%
Azam Clean Sheet 16%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Simba Azam
Matches Played 38 35
Wins 31 23
Draws 6 8
Losses 1 4
Goals Scored 1.97 1.66
Goals Conceded 0.39 0.66
Expected Goals (xG) 0.94 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Simba
0:2
Jul 4, 2026 Federation Cup
Simba vs Azam
1:0
Apr 5, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Azam vs Simba
0:0
Jan 8, 2026 Club Friendly
Azam vs Simba
1:0
Dec 7, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Azam
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Simba Compare

Top Goalscorer Chama C.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47

Azam Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Simba 95 / 100
Azam 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Simba Azam

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Simba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Simba scored in 87% of their last 38 outings.

Recent resilience: Simba stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Azam let in goals in 37% of their last 35 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.20 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Simba VS Azam
1.13 Goals Scored 1.63
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.75
50% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Simba

(Home)
16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2
Simba
13 Sept
Simba
6 : 1
Mighty Wanderers FC
06 Sept
Mighty Wanderers FC
0 : 1
Simba
31 Aug
Simba
2 : 0
Geita Gold
27 Aug
Simba
1 : 0
Coastal Union
Page 1 of 8

Azam

(Away)
16 Sept
Azam
0 : 2
Simba
07 Sept
Azam
2 : 0
Namungo
31 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Azam
28 Aug
Geita Gold
2 : 2
Azam
23 Aug
Azam
2 : 1
Pamba
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/8-finals
Simba 3
Dodoma Jiji 1
Namungo 0
TRA United 2
Coastal Union 2
Pamba 0
Singida Black Stars 5
Mbeya City 1
Geita Gold 0
Mashujaa 1
Azam 4
Fountain Gate 0
JKT Tanzania 3
Mbuni 0
Young Africans 1
TMA Stars 0
Quarter-finals
Simba 4
TRA United 0
Coastal Union 1
Singida Black Stars 0
Mashujaa 0
Azam 1
JKT Tanzania 0
Young Africans 2
Semi-finals
Simba 4
Coastal Union 0
Azam 3
Young Africans 2
Final
Simba 1
Azam 0