Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Simba vs Pamba

Tanzania Tanzania

Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 KMC Stadium, Dar es Salaam
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Mpanzu E.
Assist: Maema N.
13'
Kibailo H.
18' Event
Tegisi M.

AI Match Summary

The Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 game between Simba and Pamba finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Simba.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Simba
20%
Draws
7%
Pamba
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Simba

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Simba carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Simba are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Simba have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 27.200000000000003%
Simba Clean Sheet 68%
Pamba Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Simba Pamba
Matches Played 34 29
Wins 25 8
Draws 8 8
Losses 1 13
Goals Scored 1.82 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.35 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.40 1.12
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 19, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Pamba vs Simba
1:2
Jun 14, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Pamba
2:1
Mar 19, 2026 Ligi Kuu Bara
Pamba vs Simba
1:1
May 8, 2025 Ligi Kuu Bara
Simba vs Pamba
5:1
Nov 22, 2024 Ligi Kuu Bara
Pamba vs Simba
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Simba Compare

Top Goalscorer Mpanzu E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Gueye L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.08
Avg xA / game 0.7

Pamba Compare

Top Goalscorer Tegisi M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.62

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Simba 95 / 100
Pamba 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Simba Pamba

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Simba Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Simba found the back of the net in 82% of recent matches (34 games).

Pamba has conceded goals in 66% of their last 29 outings.

These sides typically produce 3.00 goals when they meet.

Recent resilience: Simba stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Simba VS Pamba
1.5 Goals Scored 1.14
0 Goals Conceded 1.29
38% Over 1.5 86%
25% Over 2.5 57%
13% Over 3.5 14%

Recent Form & Match History

Simba

(Home)
19 Aug
Pamba
1 : 2
Simba
16 Aug
Kagera Sugar
0 : 2
Simba
12 Aug
Simba
0 : 1
Young Africans
31 Jul
Singida Black Stars
1 : 2
Simba
28 Jul
Jamus
0 : 0
Simba
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Pamba

(Away)
19 Aug
Pamba
1 : 2
Simba
14 Aug
Pamba
1 : 1
Dodoma Jiji
30 Jun
Coastal Union
2 : 1
Pamba
27 Jun
Pamba
1 : 2
JKT Tanzania
24 Jun
Pamba
0 : 2
Mbeya City
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Young Africans 30 23 6 1 71:9 75
2 Simba 30 22 7 1 54:11 73
3 Azam 30 18 10 2 46:12 64
4 Singida Black Stars 30 15 5 10 47:35 50
5 TRA United 30 11 10 9 33:28 43
6 JKT Tanzania 30 10 12 8 30:33 42
7 Pamba 30 9 9 12 32:35 36
8 Coastal Union 30 9 9 12 31:37 36
9 Dodoma Jiji 30 8 11 11 25:36 35
10 Namungo 30 7 13 10 25:32 34
11 Mashujaa 30 7 12 11 15:27 33
12 Fountain Gate 30 9 6 15 25:44 33
13 Tanzania Prisons 30 9 5 16 23:41 32
14 Mbeya City 30 7 9 14 24:41 30
15 Mtibwa Sugar 30 6 9 15 25:48 27
16 Kinondoni MC 30 2 3 25 16:53 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Ligi Kuu Bara 2025/2026 (Relegation)