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Slovakia vs Luxembourg Prediction & H2H Stats

World World

World Championship 2026 City Arena Trnava, Trnava
Our Tip

Match Events

30'
Duda O.
43'
Muratovic E.
55' Event
Obert A.
Assist: Duda O.

AI Match Summary

The World Championship 2026 game between Slovakia and Luxembourg finished 2-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Slovakia.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Slovakia
15%
Draws
35%
Luxembourg
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Slovakia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Slovakia carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Slovakia are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • European nights carry their own weight — this World Championship 2026 fixture won't be treated like a routine game.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Slovakia have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 63.4%
Slovakia Clean Sheet 17%
Luxembourg Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Slovakia Luxembourg
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 15 8
Draws 4 4
Losses 9 16
Goals Scored 1.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.39
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 13, 2025 World Championship
Slovakia vs Luxembourg
2:0
Sep 7, 2025 World Championship
Luxembourg vs Slovakia
0:1
Oct 16, 2023 Euro
Luxembourg vs Slovakia
0:1
Mar 23, 2023 Euro
Slovakia vs Luxembourg
0:0
Oct 12, 2015 Euro
Luxembourg vs Slovakia
2:4

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Slovakia Compare

Top Goalscorer Obert A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Schranz I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Luxembourg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Slovakia 75 / 100
Luxembourg 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Slovakia Luxembourg

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Slovakia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Slovakia scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Recent resilience: Slovakia stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Luxembourg's defensive record shows goals conceded in 75% of 28 matches.

These sides typically produce 2.00 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Slovakia VS Luxembourg
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.75 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 63%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Slovakia

(Home)
29 Sept
Slovakia
2 : 1
Kazakhstan
26 Sept
Slovakia
2 : 0
Moldova
05 Jun
Slovakia
2 : 2
Montenegro
01 Jun
Slovakia
2 : 1
Malta
31 Mar
Slovakia
2 : 0
Romania
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Luxembourg

(Away)
29 Sept
Luxembourg
0 : 3
Iceland
26 Sept
Bulgaria
1 : 2
Luxembourg
06 Jun
Albania
0 : 1
Luxembourg
03 Jun
Luxembourg
0 : 1
Italy
31 Mar
Luxembourg
3 : 0
Malta
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League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Germany 6 5 0 1 16:3 15
2 Slovakia 6 4 0 2 6:8 12
3 Northern Ireland 6 3 0 3 7:6 9
4 Luxembourg 6 0 0 6 1:13 0
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League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Switzerland 6 4 2 0 14:2 14
2 Kosovo 6 3 2 1 6:5 11
3 Slovenia 6 0 4 2 3:8 4
4 Sweden 6 0 2 4 4:12 2
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League Standings (Group 3)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Scotland 6 4 1 1 13:7 13
2 Denmark 6 3 2 1 16:7 11
3 Greece 6 2 1 3 10:12 7
4 Belarus 6 0 2 4 4:17 2
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League Standings (Group 4)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 France 6 5 1 0 16:4 16
2 Ukraine 6 3 1 2 10:11 10
3 Iceland 6 2 1 3 13:11 7
4 Azerbaijan 6 0 1 5 3:16 1
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League Standings (Group 5)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Spain 6 5 1 0 21:2 16
2 Turkey 6 4 1 1 17:12 13
3 Georgia 6 1 0 5 7:15 3
4 Bulgaria 6 1 0 5 3:19 3
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League Standings (Group 6)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Portugal 6 4 1 1 20:7 13
2 Ireland 6 3 1 2 9:7 10
3 Hungary 6 2 2 2 11:10 8
4 Armenia 6 1 0 5 3:19 3
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League Standings (Group 7)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Netherlands 8 6 2 0 27:4 20
2 Poland 8 5 2 1 14:7 17
3 Finland 8 3 1 4 8:14 10
4 Malta 8 1 2 5 4:19 5
5 Lithuania 8 0 3 5 6:15 3
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League Standings (Group 8)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Austria 8 6 1 1 22:4 19
2 Bosnia & Herzegovina 8 5 2 1 17:7 17
3 Romania 8 4 1 3 19:10 13
4 Cyprus 8 2 2 4 11:11 8
5 San Marino 8 0 0 8 2:39 0
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League Standings (Group 9)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Norway 8 8 0 0 37:5 24
2 Italy 8 6 0 2 21:12 18
3 Israel 8 4 0 4 19:20 12
4 Estonia 8 1 1 6 8:21 4
5 Moldova 8 0 1 7 5:32 1
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League Standings (Group 10)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Belgium 8 5 3 0 29:7 18
2 Wales 8 5 1 2 21:11 16
3 North Macedonia 8 3 4 1 13:10 13
4 Kazakhstan 8 2 2 4 9:13 8
5 Liechtenstein 8 0 0 8 0:31 0
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League Standings (Group 11)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 England 8 8 0 0 22:0 24
2 Albania 8 4 2 2 7:5 14
3 Serbia 8 4 1 3 9:10 13
4 Latvia 8 1 2 5 5:15 5
5 Andorra 8 0 1 7 3:16 1
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League Standings (Group 12)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Croatia 8 7 1 0 26:4 22
2 Czech Republic 8 5 1 2 18:8 16
3 Faroe Islands 8 4 0 4 11:9 12
4 Montenegro 8 3 0 5 8:17 9
5 Gibraltar 8 0 0 8 3:28 0
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