Sport Picks

Iceland

Icelandic Cup 2024

Arbaer

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Smari play Arbaer in the Icelandic Cup 2024. Arbaer are favorites here. Recently, Smari averaged 1.6 goals scored and 3.2 conceded. Arbaer averaged 2 goals scored and 3 conceded. In past meetings, Smari won 0, Arbaer won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Apr 5, 2024 ended 2:3. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.93 for Smari and 2.30 for Arbaer. This points to a Arbaer double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

27%

Smari

15%

Draws

58%

Arbaer

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arbaer

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

84% / High Confidence

Smari picked up more points recently compared to Arbaer.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.93 vs 2.30 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 92%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 96%

Over 2.5 Goals 92%

Over 3.5 Goals 55%

Over 4.5 Goals 28%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%

Smari Clean Sheet 10%

Arbaer Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 86%

Second Half Goal 91%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Smari	Arbaer
Matches Played	10	15
Wins	3	8
Draws	0	0
Losses	7	7
Goals Scored	1.6	2
Goals Conceded	3.2	3
Expected Goals (xG)	1.86	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.86	2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 5, 2024 Icelandic Cup

Smari vs Arbaer

Possession: 46% - 51% Cards: 3 - 2

2:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Smari Compare

Top Goalscorer Helgason B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Sigurgeirsson A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.43

Avg xA / game 0.93

Arbaer Compare

Top Goalscorer Runolfsson A.

2 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Smari 26 / 100

Arbaer 54 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Smari Arbaer

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arbaer Win (2)

Secondary Pick Arbaer & Over 2.5

First Half Result Draw (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +42%

5.26

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +6.7%

1.16

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Smari attacking → ← attacking Arbaer

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Smari scored in 80% of their last 10 games.

Arbaer let in goals in 93% of their last 15 matches.

Games between these two average 5.00 goals.

Smari went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Arbaer lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

9 Points in last 5 24

1.86 Goals expected (xG) 1.75

2.86 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00