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Smederevo vs Loznica

Serbia Serbia

Mozzart Bet Prva Liga 2025/2026 Stadion FK Smederevo
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Stanojevic D.
Own Goal
44'
Gajic U.
45'
Petrovic L.

AI Match Summary

Smederevo host Loznica in the Mozzart Bet Prva Liga 2025/2026. Little to choose between these two on current form. Smederevo have averaged 1.38 scored and 1.38 conceded recently, against Loznica's 1.13 scored and 0.38 conceded. Head-to-head, Smederevo have won 3 to Loznica's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Nov 14, 2025, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 1.25, favoring Loznica. Loznica in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Smederevo
40%
Draws
29%
Loznica
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Loznica has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to Smederevo.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 40% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in Mozzart Bet Prva Liga 2025/2026 provide steady trend data.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 62.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 22%
Smederevo Clean Sheet 68%
Loznica Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Smederevo Loznica
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 13 16
Draws 6 9
Losses 11 5
Goals Scored 1.38 1.13
Goals Conceded 1.38 0.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Nov 14, 2025 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Loznica vs Smederevo
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 Mozzart Bet Prva Liga
Smederevo vs Loznica
2:0
May 18, 2019 Srpska Liga - West
Loznica vs Smederevo
1:2
Nov 3, 2018 Srpska Liga - West
Smederevo vs Loznica
3:0
Apr 21, 2018 Srpska Liga - West
Loznica vs Smederevo
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Smederevo Compare

Top Goalscorer Barac P.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Loznica Compare

Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Smederevo 42 / 100
Loznica 40 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Smederevo Loznica

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Smederevo scored in 57% of their last 30 games.

Loznica let in goals in 47% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Smederevo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Loznica lost 0 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Smederevo VS Loznica
1.38 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.38
75% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 13%
25% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Zemun30189348:2663
2Macva Sabac30169541:2557
3FK Vozdovac30168647:2356
4Loznica30139830:2548
5Jedinstvo Ub301111844:3944
6Vrsac30914730:2741
7Graficar Beograd3010101030:2940
8Smederevo301171234:2840
9Dinamo Jug301012831:2938
10Tekstilac Odzaci309101134:4137
11Borac 192630991230:3336
12Dubocica307101329:4431
13Kabel Novi Sad306121222:4030
14Trayal Krusevac30781533:3629
15FAP30681626:4726
16Usce304101623:4022