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Smorgon vs Niva Dolbizno - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Belarus Belarus

Pershaya Liga Yunost Stadium, Smorgon
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Match Events

6'
Kovalevich V.
10'
Leshkevich N.
22'
Fartuna B.

AI Match Summary

The Pershaya Liga game between Smorgon and Niva Dolbizno finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Smorgon.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
Smorgon
20%
Draws
40%
Niva Dolbizno
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Niva Dolbizno carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular Pershaya Liga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Smorgon Clean Sheet 10%
Niva Dolbizno Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Smorgon Niva Dolbizno
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 10 19
Draws 6 4
Losses 12 6
Goals Scored 1.54 2.66
Goals Conceded 1.32 1.21
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 19, 2026 Pershaya Liga
Smorgon vs Niva Dolbizno
1:0
May 23, 2026 Pershaya Liga
Niva Dolbizno vs Smorgon
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Smorgon Compare

Top Goalscorer Dukso M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Niva Dolbizno Compare

Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Smorgon 34 / 100
Niva Dolbizno 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Smorgon Niva Dolbizno

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Niva Dolbizno Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Smorgon found the back of the net in 75% of recent matches (28 games).

Niva Dolbizno has conceded goals in 72% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Smorgon stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Smorgon VS Niva Dolbizno
1.38 Goals Scored 3
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Smorgon

(Home)
03 Oct
Smorgon
2 : 0
Osipovichi
25 Sept
FK Lida
2 : 1
Smorgon
19 Sept
Smorgon
1 : 0
Niva Dolbizno
12 Sept
SKA-1938 Minsk
0 : 2
Smorgon
06 Sept
Smorgon
1 : 1
Slutsk
Page 1 of 6

Niva Dolbizno

(Away)
10 Oct
Niva Dolbizno
5 : 2
FC Gomel 2
03 Oct
Orsha
0 : 0
Niva Dolbizno
26 Sept
Niva Dolbizno
4 : 0
Volna Pinsk
19 Sept
Smorgon
1 : 0
Niva Dolbizno
13 Sept
Niva Dolbizno
2 : 1
BumProm Gomel
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Slutsk 27 17 6 4 56:28 57
2 SKA-1938 Minsk 28 17 5 6 61:32 56
3 Niva Dolbizno 27 17 4 6 67:31 55
4 FK Lida 27 17 3 7 51:43 54
5 FC Slonim 27 14 5 8 49:32 47
6 Molodechno 27 14 3 10 46:45 45
7 BumProm Gomel 27 12 5 10 52:41 41
8 Soligorsk 27 11 7 9 52:44 40
9 Din. Minsk 2 25 10 5 10 42:37 35
10 Ostrovets 27 8 11 8 37:39 35
11 Volna Pinsk 27 10 4 13 40:50 34
12 Smorgon 27 9 6 12 33:36 33
13 FC Minsk 2 27 9 3 15 37:50 30
14 Orsha 27 7 6 14 28:51 27
15 Uni X Labs 26 6 8 12 25:35 26
16 BATE 2 27 5 7 15 36:61 22
17 FC Gomel 2 27 5 6 16 36:55 21
18 Osipovichi 27 5 4 18 29:67 19
Promotion - Vysshaya Liga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Vysshaya Liga (Relegation)