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Socorrense vs Santa Cruz SE

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano 3
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Socorrense play Santa Cruz SE in the Sergipano 3. It looks like a close match. Recently, Socorrense averaged 1.37 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. Santa Cruz SE averaged 1.25 goals scored and 1.81 conceded. In past meetings, Socorrense won 2, Santa Cruz SE won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Sep 27, 2025 ended 5:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.31 for Socorrense and 1.25 for Santa Cruz SE. This points to a Socorrense double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%
Socorrense
15%
Draws
40%
Santa Cruz SE
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Socorrense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Socorrense picked up more points recently compared to Santa Cruz SE.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.31 vs 1.25 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 59%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 78%
Over 2.5 Goals 59%
Over 3.5 Goals 35%
Over 4.5 Goals 18%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 51%
Socorrense Clean Sheet 19%
Santa Cruz SE Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 70%
Second Half Goal 74%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Socorrense Santa Cruz SE
Matches Played 30 16
Wins 7 5
Draws 6 0
Losses 17 11
Goals Scored 1.37 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.8 1.81
Expected Goals (xG) 2.88 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 27, 2025 Sergipano 3
Socorrense vs Santa Cruz SE
5:1
Sep 29, 2024 Sergipano 2
Santa Cruz SE vs Socorrense
0:1
Sep 4, 2024 Sergipano 2
Socorrense vs Santa Cruz SE
0:3

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Socorrense 44 / 100
Santa Cruz SE 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Socorrense Santa Cruz SE

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Socorrense or Draw (1X)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +21.5%
2.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +11.5%
1.89
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Socorrense attacking → ← attacking Santa Cruz SE

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Socorrense scored in 60% of their last 30 games.

Santa Cruz SE let in goals in 81% of their last 16 matches.

Games between these two average 3.33 goals.

Socorrense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Santa Cruz SE lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

27 Points in last 5 15
2.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.38
1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.75

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Socorro651019:416
2Propria642012:314
3Socorrense641122:713
4Santa Cruz SE62048:116
5Forca Jovem Aquidaba62045:86
6Coritiba SE61052:203
7Aracaju FC61056:210
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Estanciano EC642012:414
2Sete de Junho63308:112
3CS Maruinense63127:510
4Botafogo ASF623111:99
5AD Boquinhense62136:87
6Amadense61054:113
7Riachao60242:122