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Sogdiana vs Buxoro - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Uzbekistan Uzbekistan

Super League Sogdiana Sport Complex, Jizzakh
Fri, Oct 30, 2026
VS
04:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Sogdiana host Buxoro in the Super League. Neither defense has been convincing lately, which should mean goals. Sogdiana have averaged 1.61 scored and 1.79 conceded recently, against Buxoro's 1.39 scored and 1.25 conceded. Past meetings favor Buxoro slightly — 1-3-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 2, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.69 xG vs 1.75) point toward Buxoro. AI goal market prediction: Over 2.5, BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
Sogdiana
20%
Draws
44%
Buxoro
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Buxoro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • Buxoro carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Model gives Sogdiana a 42% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
Sogdiana Clean Sheet 12%
Buxoro Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sogdiana Buxoro
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 10 13
Draws 5 5
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.61 1.39
Goals Conceded 1.79 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.69 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 2, 2026 Super League
Buxoro vs Sogdiana
2:1
Oct 23, 2025 Super League
Buxoro vs Sogdiana
2:0
Sep 25, 2025 Uzbekistan Cup
Buxoro vs Sogdiana
3:2
May 24, 2025 Super League
Sogdiana vs Buxoro
1:1
Nov 4, 2023 Super League
Sogdiana vs Buxoro
1:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sogdiana 40 / 100
Buxoro 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sogdiana Buxoro

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sogdiana's goal record stands at 79% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Defensive concern: Buxoro conceded in 71% of 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Sogdiana remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Sogdiana VS Buxoro
1.63 Goals Scored 2
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.75
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Sogdiana

(Home)
16 Oct
Bunyodkor
1 : 1
Sogdiana
11 Oct
Sogdiana
2 : 3
Lok. Tashkent
20 Sept
Sogdiana
1 : 2
OKMK
10 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
0 : 0
Sogdiana
05 Sept
Sogdiana
5 : 2
Mashal Muborak
Page 1 of 6

Buxoro

(Away)
17 Oct
Din. Samarkand
1 : 2
Buxoro
09 Oct
Buxoro
3 : 2
Andijan
19 Sept
Bunyodkor
2 : 1
Buxoro
11 Sept
Buxoro
1 : 4
Navbahor Namangan
05 Sept
Qizilqum
3 : 2
Buxoro
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Neftchi Fargona 24 17 4 3 56:21 55
2 Pakhtakor 24 15 8 1 43:22 53
3 Navbahor Namangan 24 13 7 4 42:24 46
4 Buxoro 24 12 4 8 37:32 40
5 Lok. Tashkent 24 11 6 7 39:30 39
6 OKMK 24 11 6 7 34:31 39
7 Nasaf Qarshi 24 10 8 6 35:22 38
8 Qizilqum 24 10 3 11 24:30 33
9 Din. Samarkand 24 8 6 10 35:38 30
10 Andijan 24 9 3 12 29:32 30
11 Sogdiana 24 8 5 11 41:47 29
12 Termez Surkhon 24 7 7 10 19:28 28
13 Kokand 1912 24 5 8 11 24:34 23
14 Xorazm Urganch 24 5 8 11 20:34 23
15 Bunyodkor 24 7 2 15 24:40 23
16 Mashal Muborak 24 1 1 22 11:48 4
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)