Sport Picks
Sogdiana vs Neftchi Fargona - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Uzbekistan
Super League Sogdiana Sport Complex, Jizzakh 
Match Events
22'
22'
Micin P.
25'
25'
Abdurashidov A.
28'
28'
Yuldoshev I.
Assist: Alibaev I.
AI Match Summary
Neftchi Fargona in this Super League matchup, with the score ending 1-5 — backing the pre-match view that favored Neftchi Fargona.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
33%
20%
47%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Neftchi Fargona
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
33%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Neftchi Fargona lately — more wins on the board than Sogdiana.
- Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- Neftchi Fargona have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71%
Sogdiana Clean Sheet 13%
Neftchi Fargona Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Sogdiana | Neftchi Fargona |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 27 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 20 |
| Draws | 4 | 4 |
| Losses | 13 | 4 |
| Goals Scored | 1.59 | 2.14 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.78 | 0.86 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 23, 2026 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Sogdiana
3:0
Jul 21, 2026 Super League
Sogdiana vs Neftchi Fargona
1:5
Sep 30, 2025 Super League
Sogdiana vs Neftchi Fargona
0:1
May 4, 2025 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Sogdiana
2:1
Aug 20, 2024 Super League
Neftchi Fargona vs Sogdiana
0:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Sogdiana Compare
Top Goalscorer Micin P.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Neftchi Fargona Compare
Top Goalscorer Yuldoshev I.
1 Goals Assists Leader Giyosov K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Sogdiana 30 / 100
Neftchi Fargona 30 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Sogdiana Neftchi Fargona
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sogdiana Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 3.20 goals.
Attacking prowess: Sogdiana scored in 78% of their last 27 outings.
Recent resilience: Sogdiana stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.
Defensive concern: Neftchi Fargona conceded in 43% of 28 recent games.
Scoring Trends
Sogdiana VS Neftchi Fargona
1.63 Goals Scored 2.25
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 75%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Sogdiana
(Home) 20 Sept
Sogdiana
1 : 2 OKMK
10 Sept
Xorazm Urganch
0 : 0 Sogdiana
05 Sept
Sogdiana
5 : 2 Mashal Muborak
30 Aug
Sogdiana
2 : 0 Jayxun
23 Aug
Neftchi Fargona
3 : 0 Sogdiana
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Sogdiana
1 : 2 OKMK
05 Sept
Sogdiana
5 : 2 Mashal Muborak
30 Aug
Sogdiana
2 : 0 Jayxun
18 Aug
Sogdiana
2 : 1 Qizilqum
06 Aug
Sogdiana
1 : 0 Andijan
Page 1 of 4
Neftchi Fargona
(Away) 07 Oct
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 2 Xorazm Urganch
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
14 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
1 : 0 Al Quwa Al Jawiya
09 Sept
Neftchi Fargona
2 : 1 Termez Surkhon
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
Lok. Tashkent
0 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
04 Sept
Nasaf Qarshi
6 : 2 Neftchi Fargona
18 Aug
Buxoro
4 : 1 Neftchi Fargona
13 Aug
Andijan
0 : 3 Neftchi Fargona
03 Aug
Din. Samarkand
0 : 0 Neftchi Fargona
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League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neftchi Fargona | 23 | 16 | 4 | 3 | 52:19 | 52 |
| 2 | Pakhtakor | 23 | 15 | 7 | 1 | 42:21 | 52 |
| 3 | Navbahor Namangan | 22 | 13 | 5 | 4 | 39:21 | 44 |
| 4 | Nasaf Qarshi | 23 | 10 | 7 | 6 | 35:22 | 37 |
| 5 | Buxoro | 23 | 11 | 4 | 8 | 35:31 | 37 |
| 6 | Lok. Tashkent | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 36:28 | 35 |
| 7 | OKMK | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 31:29 | 35 |
| 8 | Din. Samarkand | 23 | 8 | 6 | 9 | 34:36 | 30 |
| 9 | Andijan | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 29:31 | 30 |
| 10 | Qizilqum | 23 | 9 | 3 | 11 | 23:30 | 30 |
| 11 | Sogdiana | 22 | 8 | 4 | 10 | 38:43 | 28 |
| 12 | Termez Surkhon | 23 | 7 | 6 | 10 | 19:28 | 27 |
| 13 | Kokand 1912 | 23 | 5 | 8 | 10 | 22:30 | 23 |
| 14 | Xorazm Urganch | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 20:34 | 22 |
| 15 | Bunyodkor | 23 | 7 | 1 | 15 | 23:39 | 22 |
| 16 | Mashal Muborak | 23 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 11:47 | 4 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2 2027/2028 (Main)
Relegation - Pro Liga (Promotion)
Relegation - Pro Liga 2027 (Main)
