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Somalia vs Eswatini

Africa Africa

Africa Cup of Nations 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

33' Event
Figuareido J.
45' Event
Ginindza S.
56' Event
Ginindza S.

AI Match Summary

Eswatini in this Africa Cup of Nations 2025 tie, finishing 0-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Somalia
20%
Draws
7%
Eswatini
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Somalia

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Eswatini lately — more wins on the board than Somalia.
  • 73% — that's where the model lands on Somalia taking it.
  • Eswatini arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Eswatini, who have won 2 of the last 4 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 4 times recently and Eswatini have taken 3 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Somalia Clean Sheet 68%
Eswatini Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Somalia Eswatini
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 4 6
Draws 5 9
Losses 21 16
Goals Scored 0.43 0.84
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 26, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Eswatini vs Somalia
2:2
Mar 20, 2024 Africa Cup of Nations
Somalia vs Eswatini
0:3
Mar 27, 2022 Africa Cup of Nations
Eswatini vs Somalia
2:1
Mar 23, 2022 Africa Cup of Nations
Somalia vs Eswatini
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Somalia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Eswatini Compare

Top Goalscorer Ginindza S.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Figuareido J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Somalia 95 / 100
Eswatini 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Somalia Eswatini

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Somalia Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.25 goals per match.

Defensive concern: Eswatini conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

Somalia has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Eswatini lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Somalia VS Eswatini
0.38 Goals Scored 0.88
1.63 Goals Conceded 2
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Somalia

(Home)
31 Mar
Mauritius
0 : 1
Somalia
27 Mar
Somalia
0 : 0
Mauritius
26 Nov
Oman
1 : 0
Somalia
21 Nov
Bahrain
0 : 1
Somalia
17 Nov
Bahrain
1 : 2
Somalia
Page 1 of 6

Eswatini

(Away)
31 Mar
Eswatini
1 : 2
Eritrea
25 Mar
Eritrea
2 : 0
Eswatini
13 Oct
Cape Verde
3 : 0
Eswatini
08 Oct
Eswatini
2 : 2
Angola
08 Sept
Libya
2 : 0
Eswatini
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Final
Somalia 2
Eswatini 5
Sao Tome and Principe 1
South Sudan 1
Chad 3
Mauritius 1
Djibouti 0
Liberia 2