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Somozas vs Celtiga

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Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Leonardo I.
9' Event
Rodriguez A.

AI Match Summary

The Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 game between Somozas and Celtiga finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Somozas
35%
Draws
9%
Celtiga
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Somozas

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

56% / Medium Confidence
  • Somozas have managed 1.07 goals a game lately — Celtiga are scoring more at 1.34.
  • Somozas are the model's pick here, at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.200000000000003%
Somozas Clean Sheet 68%
Celtiga Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Somozas Celtiga
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 10 10
Draws 11 7
Losses 8 12
Goals Scored 1.07 1.34
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.34
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 1, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Celtiga
1:1
Sep 13, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Somozas
5:0
Apr 18, 2019 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Celtiga vs Somozas
2:0
Nov 25, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Celtiga
1:0
Apr 8, 2018 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Celtiga
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Somozas Compare

Top Goalscorer Leonardo I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Celtiga Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Somozas 86 / 100
Celtiga 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Somozas Celtiga

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Somozas Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Somozas found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (29 games).

Celtiga's defensive record shows goals conceded in 76% of 29 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Somozas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Somozas VS Celtiga
1.25 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 2
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Somozas

(Home)
06 Sept
Somozas
0 : 0
Portonovo SD
10 May
Somozas
2 : 2
CD Boiro
03 May
Barco
1 : 2
Somozas
26 Apr
Somozas
1 : 1
Compostela
19 Apr
Estradense
2 : 1
Somozas
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Celtiga

(Away)
06 Sept
Silva SD
1 : 1
Celtiga
10 May
Arosa SC
3 : 2
Celtiga
01 May
Celtiga
2 : 3
Atletico Arteixo
25 Apr
Noia
3 : 0
Celtiga
19 Apr
Celtiga
0 : 1
Racing Club Villalbes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Arosa SC 34 20 10 4 58:35 70
2 Compostela 34 19 11 4 55:28 68
3 Atletico Arteixo 34 16 10 8 54:44 58
4 Estradense 34 14 11 9 46:33 53
5 Racing Club Villalbes 34 13 13 8 36:29 52
6 Gran Pena 34 13 12 9 57:42 51
7 Somozas 34 13 12 9 37:32 51
8 CD Boiro 34 13 12 9 45:29 51
9 Lugo B 34 12 12 10 41:35 48
10 Montaneros 34 12 12 10 48:42 48
11 Barco 34 13 7 14 35:41 46
12 Alondras 34 12 9 13 45:48 45
13 Celtiga 34 11 7 16 47:48 40
14 Viveiro 34 9 11 14 27:41 38
15 Silva SD 34 9 9 16 36:48 36
16 Cambados 34 4 14 16 24:43 26
17 Noia 34 6 7 21 28:57 25
18 Barbadas-Bentraces 34 4 7 23 25:69 19
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 2025/2026 (Play Offs)