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Somozas vs Gran Pena

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Rodriguez I.
46' Event
Naval A.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Tercera RFEF - Group 1 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

9%
Somozas
11%
Draws
80%
Gran Pena
Draw rate projection: 11% Favored: Gran Pena

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

93% / Very High Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Gran Pena lately — more wins on the board than Somozas.
  • 80% — that's where the model lands on Gran Pena taking it.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.8%
Somozas Clean Sheet 16%
Gran Pena Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Somozas Gran Pena
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 12 13
Draws 10 9
Losses 8 8
Goals Scored 0.88 1.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 1.5
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 14, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Gran Pena
1:1
Sep 28, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Somozas
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Gran Pena vs Somozas
0:4
Sep 8, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Gran Pena
0:1
Mar 9, 2024 Tercera RFEF - Group 1
Somozas vs Gran Pena
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Somozas Compare

Top Goalscorer Naval A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Gran Pena Compare

Top Goalscorer Rodriguez I.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Somozas 11 / 100
Gran Pena 86 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Somozas Gran Pena

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick GRA Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Somozas scored in 73% of their last 30 games.

Gran Pena has conceded goals in 73% of their last 30 outings.

Somozas went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

These sides typically produce 1.40 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Somozas VS Gran Pena
0.88 Goals Scored 1.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Somozas

(Home)
10 May
Somozas
2 : 2
CD Boiro
03 May
Barco
1 : 2
Somozas
26 Apr
Somozas
1 : 1
Compostela
19 Apr
Estradense
2 : 1
Somozas
12 Apr
Somozas
1 : 1
Viveiro
Page 1 of 6

Gran Pena

(Away)
10 May
Noia
1 : 5
Gran Pena
03 May
Gran Pena
4 : 1
Racing Club Villalbes
26 Apr
Barbadas-Bentraces
0 : 4
Gran Pena
19 Apr
Gran Pena
0 : 2
Alondras
11 Apr
Lugo B
0 : 0
Gran Pena
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Arosa SC342010458:3570
2Compostela341911455:2868
3Atletico Arteixo341610854:4458
4Estradense341411946:3353
5Racing Club Villalbes341313836:2952
6Gran Pena341312957:4251
7Somozas341312937:3251
8CD Boiro341312945:2951
9Lugo B3412121041:3548
10Montaneros3412121048:4248
11Barco341371435:4146
12Alondras341291345:4845
13Celtiga341171647:4840
14Viveiro349111427:4138
15Silva SD34991636:4836
16Cambados344141624:4326
17Noia34672128:5725
18Barbadas-Bentraces34472325:6919
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 1 (Play Offs)