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Sonacos vs Mbour

Senegal Senegal

Ligue 1 2025/2026
Sonacos Logo

Sonacos

0 - 2
FT
Mbour Logo

Mbour

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The Ligue 1 2025/2026 game between Sonacos and Mbour finished 0-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Mbour.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

24%
Sonacos
35%
Draws
41%
Mbour
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Mbour

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

41% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Mbour come out ahead of Sonacos on wins alone.
  • 41% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Ligue 1 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 62.6%
Sonacos Clean Sheet 20%
Mbour Clean Sheet 20%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sonacos Mbour
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 4 5
Draws 13 18
Losses 13 7
Goals Scored 0.6 0.6
Goals Conceded 1.3 0.7
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 8, 2026 Ligue 1
Sonacos vs Mbour
0:2
Nov 16, 2025 Ligue 1
Mbour vs Sonacos
1:0
May 5, 2024 Ligue 1
Sonacos vs Mbour
1:0
Dec 24, 2023 Ligue 1
Mbour vs Sonacos
1:0
Mar 26, 2023 Ligue 1
Mbour vs Sonacos
0:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sonacos 36 / 100
Mbour 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sonacos Mbour

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Mbour Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Sonacos stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Sonacos scored in 43% of their last 30 outings.

Mbour's defensive record shows goals conceded in 47% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.00 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

Sonacos VS Mbour
0.63 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sonacos

(Home)
04 Jun
Ouakam
2 : 1
Sonacos
22 May
Sonacos
0 : 0
ASC HLM
17 May
AS Camberene
1 : 1
Sonacos
13 May
Sonacos
0 : 3
Casa
10 May
ASC Jaraaf
0 : 0
Sonacos
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Mbour

(Away)
04 Jun
US Goree
0 : 0
Mbour
22 May
Mbour
0 : 2
Guediawaye
17 May
Teungueth
2 : 0
Mbour
13 May
Dakar Sacre-Coeur
0 : 2
Mbour
10 May
Mbour
1 : 1
Wally Daan
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Teungueth 30 13 15 2 21:6 54
2 AJEL 30 15 9 6 27:19 54
3 Generation Foot 30 13 9 8 37:22 48
4 US Goree 30 11 15 4 29:14 48
5 Wally Daan 30 10 14 6 29:24 44
6 Ouakam 30 8 18 4 23:16 42
7 ASC Jaraaf 30 9 14 7 21:16 41
8 Casa 30 7 19 4 29:20 40
9 Pikine 30 7 13 10 20:19 34
10 Mbour 30 5 18 7 18:21 33
11 ASC HLM 30 5 18 7 18:24 33
12 Dakar Sacre-Coeur 30 5 16 9 24:37 31
13 Guediawaye 30 7 8 15 29:34 28
14 Linguere 30 3 16 11 22:36 25
15 Sonacos 30 4 13 13 18:39 25
16 AS Camberene 30 3 15 12 16:34 24
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)