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Sonseca vs Marchamalo Prediction & H2H Stats

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Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Guerrero A.

AI Match Summary

Sonseca in this Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sonseca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sonseca
15%
Draws
53%
Marchamalo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Marchamalo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marchamalo lately — more wins on the board than Sonseca.
  • Marchamalo are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 27.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 12%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Sonseca Clean Sheet 18%
Marchamalo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sonseca Marchamalo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 13
Draws 5 4
Losses 20 13
Goals Scored 0.83 1.27
Goals Conceded 2.03 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.35
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Sonseca vs Marchamalo
1:0
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Sonseca
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sonseca Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerrero A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Marchamalo Compare

Avg xG / game 1.23
Avg xA / game 0.75

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sonseca 10 / 100
Marchamalo 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sonseca Marchamalo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Marchamalo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sonseca's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Marchamalo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Sonseca went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sonseca VS Marchamalo
1 Goals Scored 0.88
1.83 Goals Conceded 1.38
83% Over 1.5 50%
67% Over 2.5 38%
17% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Sonseca

(Home)
10 May
Sonseca
1 : 0
Marchamalo
03 May
Manchego Ciudad Real
0 : 2
Sonseca
26 Apr
Azuqueca
4 : 1
Sonseca
19 Apr
Sonseca
1 : 2
Villarrobledo
11 Apr
Villarrubia
2 : 1
Sonseca
Page 1 of 6

Marchamalo

(Away)
27 Sept
Manchego Ciudad Real
3 : 2
Marchamalo
20 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 2
CD Guadalajara B
13 Sept
Huracan de Balazote
0 : 2
Marchamalo
05 Sept
Marchamalo
2 : 0
CD Villa
30 Aug
Marchamalo
2 : 0
Union Adarve
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Puertollano C.F. 34 22 8 4 54:21 74
2 CD Tarancon 34 22 7 5 62:25 73
3 Toledo 34 19 11 4 55:17 68
4 Albacete B 34 17 13 4 49:17 64
5 Manchego Ciudad Real 34 18 7 9 52:29 61
6 Villarrubia 34 15 8 11 42:35 53
7 Villacanas 34 12 12 10 29:26 48
8 San Clemente 34 12 11 11 36:44 47
9 CD Guadalajara B 34 11 10 13 30:37 43
10 Villarrobledo 34 10 13 11 30:36 43
11 Huracan de Balazote 34 12 5 17 33:45 41
12 Illescas 34 8 13 13 21:32 37
13 Marchamalo 34 10 7 17 38:47 37
14 La Solana 34 8 11 15 26:38 35
15 Azuqueca 34 7 13 14 34:39 34
16 CD Pedroneras 34 7 12 15 28:43 33
17 Sonseca 34 5 7 22 28:69 22
18 Cazalegas 34 4 6 24 17:64 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)