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Sonseca vs Marchamalo

Spain Spain

Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

89' Event
Guerrero A.

AI Match Summary

Sonseca in this Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sonseca.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
Sonseca
15%
Draws
34%
Marchamalo
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Sonseca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Marchamalo lately — more wins on the board than Sonseca.
  • Sonseca are the model's pick here, at 40%.
  • Regular Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 70.2%
Sonseca Clean Sheet 16%
Marchamalo Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sonseca Marchamalo
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 5 9
Draws 5 6
Losses 20 15
Goals Scored 1 0.88
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.00 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Sonseca vs Marchamalo
1:0
Jan 10, 2026 Tercera RFEF - Group 18
Marchamalo vs Sonseca
2:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sonseca Compare

Top Goalscorer Guerrero A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5

Marchamalo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sonseca 39 / 100
Marchamalo 27 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sonseca Marchamalo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SON Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Marchamalo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 80% of 30 matches.

Sonseca's goal record stands at 60% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.00 goals per match.

Marchamalo lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sonseca VS Marchamalo
1 Goals Scored 0.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.38
88% Over 1.5 50%
75% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Sonseca

(Home)
10 May
Sonseca
1 : 0
Marchamalo
03 May
Manchego Ciudad Real
0 : 2
Sonseca
26 Apr
Azuqueca
4 : 1
Sonseca
19 Apr
Sonseca
1 : 2
Villarrobledo
11 Apr
Villarrubia
2 : 1
Sonseca
Page 1 of 6

Marchamalo

(Away)
10 May
Sonseca
1 : 0
Marchamalo
03 May
Marchamalo
0 : 4
Azuqueca
25 Apr
Villarrubia
2 : 2
Marchamalo
18 Apr
Marchamalo
0 : 1
CD Tarancon
12 Apr
CD Pedroneras
0 : 1
Marchamalo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Puertollano C.F. 34 22 8 4 54:21 74
2 CD Tarancon 34 22 7 5 62:25 73
3 Toledo 34 19 11 4 55:17 68
4 Albacete B 34 17 13 4 49:17 64
5 Manchego Ciudad Real 34 18 7 9 52:29 61
6 Villarrubia 34 15 8 11 42:35 53
7 Villacanas 34 12 12 10 29:26 48
8 San Clemente 34 12 11 11 36:44 47
9 CD Guadalajara B 34 11 10 13 30:37 43
10 Villarrobledo 34 10 13 11 30:36 43
11 Huracan de Balazote 34 12 5 17 33:45 41
12 Illescas 34 8 13 13 21:32 37
13 Marchamalo 34 10 7 17 38:47 37
14 La Solana 34 8 11 15 26:38 35
15 Azuqueca 34 7 13 14 34:39 34
16 CD Pedroneras 34 7 12 15 28:43 33
17 Sonseca 34 5 7 22 28:69 22
18 Cazalegas 34 4 6 24 17:64 18
Promotion - Tercera RFEF - Group 18 2025/2026 (Play Offs)