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Sorriso EC vs Cacerense

Brazil Brazil

Matogrossense 2
Thu, May 21, 2026
2 - 3
12:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 2-3. The second leg ended 2-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Sorriso EC
15%
Draws
64%
Cacerense
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Cacerense

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Cacerense carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Sorriso EC's way, sitting at 42%.
  • Cacerense arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Cacerense, who have won 2 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
Sorriso EC Clean Sheet 16%
Cacerense Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sorriso EC Cacerense
Matches Played 13 29
Wins 6 11
Draws 2 5
Losses 5 13
Goals Scored 2.23 1.28
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Sorriso EC vs Cacerense
1:2
May 21, 2026 Matogrossense 2
Sorriso EC vs Cacerense
2:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sorriso EC 41 / 100
Cacerense 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sorriso EC Cacerense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sorriso EC scored in 92% of their last 13 games.

These sides typically produce 4.00 goals when they meet.

Defensive concern: Cacerense conceded in 76% of 29 recent games.

Sorriso EC went unbeaten in 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Sorriso EC VS Cacerense
2 Goals Scored 1.38
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sorriso EC

(Home)
17 Sept
Cuiaba
4 : 0
Sorriso EC
12 Sept
Sorriso EC
1 : 2
Cacerense
21 May
Sorriso EC
2 : 3
Cacerense
17 May
Santa Cruz MT
1 : 1
Sorriso EC
01 May
Sorriso EC
9 : 0
Campo Novo
Page 1 of 3

Cacerense

(Away)
19 Sept
Cacerense
3 : 2
Campo Novo
12 Sept
Sorriso EC
1 : 2
Cacerense
07 Jun
Sinop FC
2 : 0
Cacerense
03 Jun
Cacerense
2 : 1
Sinop FC
30 May
Uirapuru
0 : 2
Cacerense
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Quarter-finals
Sinop FC -
TBD -
Acao 1
Santa Cruz MT 2
Uirapuru -
TBD -
Sorriso EC 2
Cacerense 3
Semi-finals
Sinop FC 1
Santa Cruz MT 0
Uirapuru 2
Cacerense 3
Final
Sinop FC 3
Cacerense 2