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Sorriso EC vs Chapada - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
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AI Match Summary

First leg ended 0-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Sorriso EC
15%
Draws
53%
Chapada
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Chapada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Chapada lately — more wins on the board than Sorriso EC.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Chapada arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor Chapada, who have won 1 of the last 2 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
Sorriso EC Clean Sheet 11%
Chapada Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sorriso EC Chapada
Matches Played 18 26
Wins 9 15
Draws 2 5
Losses 7 6
Goals Scored 2.22 1.81
Goals Conceded 1.28 0.88
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 31, 2026 Copa FMF (Mato Grosso)
Sorriso EC vs Chapada
0:1
Jun 18, 2025 Matogrossense 2
Sorriso EC vs Chapada
2:0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sorriso EC 35 / 100
Chapada 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sorriso EC Chapada

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Chapada Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Sorriso EC scored in 89% of their last 18 outings.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

Solid form: Sorriso EC remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Chapada's defensive record shows goals conceded in 54% of 26 matches.

Scoring Trends

Sorriso EC VS Chapada
2.75 Goals Scored 2
1.63 Goals Conceded 0.5
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 25%
63% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

Sorriso EC

(Home)
31 Oct
Sorriso EC
0 : 1
Chapada
24 Oct
Cacerense
0 : 1
Sorriso EC
10 Oct
Sorriso EC
2 : 3
Cuiaba
03 Oct
Sorriso EC
4 : 1
Campo Novo
27 Sept
Campo Novo
0 : 4
Sorriso EC
Page 1 of 4

Chapada

(Away)
31 Oct
Sorriso EC
0 : 1
Chapada
24 Oct
Uirapuru
0 : 2
Chapada
14 Oct
Santa Cruz MT
0 : 2
Chapada
11 Oct
Chapada
1 : 0
Uniao Rondonopolis
07 Oct
Chapada
3 : 0
Várzea Grande EC
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Chapada 1
Sorriso EC 0
Cuiaba 6
Uniao Rondonopolis 1
Final
TBD -
Cuiaba -