Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Sousa vs Nacional PB

Brazil Brazil

Paraibano 2025 Estadio Antonio Mariz (Marizao), Sousa
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Ian Augusto
29' Event
Diego Ceara
31' Event
Diego Ceara

AI Match Summary

The Paraibano 2025 game between Sousa and Nacional PB finished 3-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Sousa.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

26%
Sousa
35%
Draws
39%
Nacional PB
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Nacional PB

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

39% / Low Confidence
  • Nacional PB haven't matched Sousa's recent run of results.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 39% draw probability.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 21%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%
Sousa Clean Sheet 23%
Nacional PB Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Sousa Nacional PB
Matches Played 37 29
Wins 15 8
Draws 7 11
Losses 15 10
Goals Scored 1.08 1.31
Goals Conceded 0.92 1.48
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 12, 2026 Paraibano
Nacional PB vs Sousa
1:1
Feb 8, 2025 Paraibano
Sousa vs Nacional PB
3:0
Jan 21, 2024 Paraibano
Nacional PB vs Sousa
1:0
Jul 9, 2023 Serie D
Sousa vs Nacional PB
1:0
May 21, 2023 Serie D
Nacional PB vs Sousa
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Sousa Compare

Top Goalscorer Diego Ceara
2 Goals
Assists Leader Ian Augusto
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Nacional PB Compare

Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Sousa 33 / 100
Nacional PB 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Sousa Nacional PB

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Nacional PB Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Nacional PB's defensive record shows goals conceded in 83% of 29 matches.

H2H data points to 1.60 goals as a typical output.

Sousa found the back of the net in 59% of recent matches (37 games).

Sousa has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

Sousa VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
1 Goals Conceded 0
63% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Sousa

(Home)
14 Jun
Sousa
0 : 2
America RN
01 Jun
Maguary
2 : 0
Sousa
23 May
Sousa
0 : 0
Central SC
16 May
ABC
2 : 0
Sousa
10 May
Laguna RN
0 : 1
Sousa
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Nacional PB

(Away)
22 Feb
Treze PB
1 : 2
Nacional PB
12 Feb
Nacional PB
1 : 1
Sousa
09 Feb
Serra Branca
2 : 2
Nacional PB
05 Feb
Nacional PB
0 : 0
Botafogo PB
01 Feb
Atletico Cajazeirense
1 : 0
Nacional PB
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sousa 9 6 2 1 14:3 20
2 Botafogo PB 9 6 1 2 19:8 19
3 Treze PB 9 5 3 1 18:8 18
4 Serra Branca 9 5 2 2 21:8 17
5 Campinense 9 4 2 3 14:10 14
6 EC de Patos 9 3 1 5 14:16 10
7 Pombal 9 2 3 4 7:11 9
8 Nacional PB 9 2 3 4 15:21 9
9 Auto Esporte 9 1 4 4 9:16 7
10 Picuiense 9 0 1 8 5:35 1
11 CSP 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - Paraibano 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Paraibano 2 (Main)