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South Africa vs Canada

World World

World Championship 2026 SoFi Stadium
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

South Africa play Canada in the World Championship 2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, South Africa averaged 1.25 goals scored and 0.88 conceded. Canada averaged 1.57 goals scored and 0.77 conceded. In past meetings, South Africa won 1, Canada won 1, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 28, 2026 ended 0:1. Our numbers estimate xG of 0.81 for South Africa and 1.56 for Canada. This points to a Canada double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

33%
South Africa
32%
Draws
35%
Canada
Draw rate projection: 32% Favored: Canada

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

69% / Medium Confidence
  • South Africa picked up more points recently compared to Canada.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (0.81 vs 1.56 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%
Over 1.5 Goals 66%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 41%
South Africa Clean Sheet 15%
Canada Clean Sheet 18%
First Half Goal 59%
Second Half Goal 63%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Africa Canada
Matches Played 32 30
Wins 13 15
Draws 12 8
Losses 7 7
Goals Scored 1.25 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.88 0.77
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 0.75

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 28, 2026 World Championship
South Africa vs Canada
0:1
Nov 20, 2007 Friendly International
South Africa vs Canada
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Africa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.44

Canada Compare

Top Goalscorer Eustaquio S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.59
Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Africa 33 / 100
Canada 35 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Africa Canada

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Canada or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +32%
4.00
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

South Africa attacking → ← attacking Canada

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Africa scored in 69% of their last 32 games.

Canada let in goals in 50% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.50 goals.

South Africa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Canada lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

51 Points in last 5 53
0.88 Goals expected (xG) 1.75
1.38 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 0.75