Sport Picks

Africa

COSAFA Cup Toyota Stadium (Free State)

Mozambique

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

South Africa play Mozambique in the COSAFA Cup. It looks like a close match. Recently, South Africa averaged 1.2 goals scored and 0.9 conceded. Mozambique averaged 1.1 goals scored and 1.77 conceded. In past meetings, South Africa won 2, Mozambique won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Jun 10, 2025 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.85 for South Africa and 0.99 for Mozambique. This points to a South Africa double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

South Africa

25%

Draws

32%

Mozambique

Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: South Africa

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

74% / Medium Confidence

South Africa picked up more points recently compared to Mozambique.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.85 vs 0.99 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%

Over 1.5 Goals 69%

Over 2.5 Goals 46%

Over 3.5 Goals 28%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%

South Africa Clean Sheet 23%

Mozambique Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 62%

Second Half Goal 66%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	South Africa	Mozambique
Matches Played	30	30
Wins	11	10
Draws	12	4
Losses	7	16
Goals Scored	1.2	1.1
Goals Conceded	0.9	1.77
Expected Goals (xG)	1.13	0.86
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.13	2.57

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 10, 2025 Friendly International

South Africa vs Mozambique

Possession: 48% - 44% Cards: 1 - 0

2:0

Jun 4, 2025 COSAFA Cup

South Africa vs Mozambique

Possession: 52% - 47% Cards: 3 - 2

0:1

Jun 26, 2024 COSAFA Cup

South Africa vs Mozambique

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 1 - 2

1:1

Nov 17, 2022 Friendly International

South Africa vs Mozambique

Possession: 50% - 47% Cards: 3 - 4

2:1

Jul 13, 2022 COSAFA Cup

South Africa vs Mozambique

Possession: 50% - 40% Cards: 2 - 0

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Africa Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87

Avg xA / game 0.56

Mozambique Compare

Top Goalscorer Sumbane A.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.78

Avg xA / game 0.48

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Africa 43 / 100

Mozambique 31 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

South Africa Mozambique

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: South Africa or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +23%

2.86

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15%

2.50

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

South Africa attacking → ← attacking Mozambique

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Africa scored in 67% of their last 30 games.

Mozambique let in goals in 83% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 1.80 goals.

South Africa went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Mozambique lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

45 Points in last 5 34

1.13 Goals expected (xG) 0.86

1.13 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.57

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2:1	4
2	Zimbabwe	3	1	1	1	3:3	4
3	Mozambique	3	1	1	1	2:3	4
4	Mauritius	3	0	3	0	0:0	3

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Angola	3	2	1	0	6:1	7
2	Namibia	3	1	2	0	4:1	5
3	Lesotho	3	1	0	2	1:7	3
4	Malawi	3	0	1	2	0:2	1

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Madagascar	2	1	1	0	2:1	4
2	Tanzania	2	1	0	1	2:2	3
3	Eswatini	2	0	1	1	2:3	1
4	Morocco	0	0	0	0	0:0	0

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Comoros	2	1	1	0	1:0	4
2	Botswana	2	0	2	0	3:3	2
3	Zambia	2	0	1	1	3:4	1