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South Hobart vs Kingborough Lions

Australia Australia

NPL Tasmania Darcy Street
Our Tip

Match Events

29' Event
Morton N.
(Penalty)
40' Event
Maddock R.
51' Event
Mies N.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

South Hobart host Kingborough Lions in the NPL Tasmania. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Recent numbers: South Hobart at 3.25 goals for, 1.13 against; Kingborough Lions at 3.88 for, 0.63 against. Head-to-head, South Hobart have won 4 to Kingborough Lions's 0, with 1 draws. They last met on Jun 21, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.94 xG vs 2.50) point toward South Hobart. South Hobart in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
South Hobart
44%
Draws
20%
Kingborough Lions
Draw rate projection: 44% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Kingborough Lions has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to South Hobart.
  • Model projects a tightly contested fixture with a 44% draw probability.
  • League standings and seasonal metrics in NPL Tasmania provide steady trend data.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
South Hobart Clean Sheet 10%
Kingborough Lions Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Hobart Kingborough Lions
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 19 20
Draws 3 3
Losses 8 6
Goals Scored 3.25 3.88
Goals Conceded 1.13 0.63
Expected Goals (xG) 3.25 3.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.13 0.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 21, 2026 NPL Tasmania
Kingborough Lions vs South Hobart
1:1
Mar 21, 2026 NPL Tasmania
South Hobart vs Kingborough Lions
5:1
Jul 26, 2025 NPL Tasmania
South Hobart vs Kingborough Lions
4:1
May 24, 2025 NPL Tasmania
Kingborough Lions vs South Hobart
2:3
Mar 15, 2025 NPL Tasmania
South Hobart vs Kingborough Lions
4:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Hobart Compare

Top Goalscorer Maddock R.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Morton N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.5
Avg xA / game 1.63

Kingborough Lions Compare

Avg xG / game 3.53
Avg xA / game 2.16

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Hobart 34 / 100
Kingborough Lions 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Hobart Kingborough Lions

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick KIN Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Hobart scored in 90% of their last 30 games.

Kingborough Lions let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

South Hobart went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Kingborough Lions lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

South Hobart VS Kingborough Lions
3.25 Goals Scored 3.88
1.13 Goals Conceded 0.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
63% Over 3.5 50%