Sport Picks

Australia

NPL Victoria The Home of the Matildas

Bentleigh Greens

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

South Melbourne play Bentleigh Greens in the NPL Victoria. It looks like a close match. Recently, South Melbourne averaged 2.07 goals scored and 1.59 conceded. Bentleigh Greens averaged 1.07 goals scored and 1.69 conceded. In past meetings, South Melbourne won 5, Bentleigh Greens won 0, and they drew 0. Their last match on Jun 19, 2026 ended 1:5. Our numbers estimate xG of 2.69 for South Melbourne and 1.38 for Bentleigh Greens. This points to a South Melbourne double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%

South Melbourne

15%

Draws

33%

Bentleigh Greens

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: South Melbourne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

78% / High Confidence

South Melbourne picked up more points recently compared to Bentleigh Greens.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (2.69 vs 1.38 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 62%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 89%

Over 1.5 Goals 79%

Over 2.5 Goals 62%

Over 3.5 Goals 37%

Over 4.5 Goals 19%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 43%

South Melbourne Clean Sheet 17%

Bentleigh Greens Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 71%

Second Half Goal 75%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	South Melbourne	Bentleigh Greens
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	15	11
Draws	2	6
Losses	12	12
Goals Scored	2.07	1.07
Goals Conceded	1.59	1.69
Expected Goals (xG)	2.00	0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	3.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 19, 2026 NPL Victoria

Bentleigh Greens vs South Melbourne

Possession: 58% - 42% Cards: 4 - 2

1:5

Mar 7, 2026 NPL Victoria

South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens

Possession: 55% - 46% Cards: 1 - 3

1:0

Jul 15, 2023 NPL Victoria

Bentleigh Greens vs South Melbourne

Possession: 54% - 59% Cards: 2 - 4

0:2

Apr 15, 2023 NPL Victoria

South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens

Possession: 42% - 53% Cards: 1 - 2

1:0

May 28, 2022 NPL Victoria

South Melbourne vs Bentleigh Greens

Possession: 54% - 56% Cards: 1 - 1

3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Melbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Swibel J.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.54

Avg xA / game 1

Bentleigh Greens Compare

Avg xG / game 0.45

Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Melbourne 50 / 100

Bentleigh Greens 32 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

South Melbourne Bentleigh Greens

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: South Melbourne or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18%

2.27

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +11%

1.79

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

South Melbourne attacking → ← attacking Bentleigh Greens

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Melbourne scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Bentleigh Greens let in goals in 66% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

South Melbourne went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Bentleigh Greens lost 5 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 39

2.00 Goals expected (xG) 0.50

2.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 3.38

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Oakleigh Cannons	19	12	5	2	41:18	41
2	Hume City	19	12	4	3	39:22	40
3	Avondale FC	19	11	1	7	53:25	34
4	Heidelberg Utd	19	9	4	6	31:24	31
5	Melbourne City U21	18	8	5	5	35:20	29
6	Preston Lions	18	11	2	5	28:15	29
7	South Melbourne	19	9	1	9	29:32	28
8	George Cross	19	6	8	5	25:26	26
9	Dandenong City SC	19	7	5	7	26:25	22
10	St Albans	19	6	4	9	21:34	22
11	Altona Magic	19	5	4	10	21:35	19
12	Bentleigh Greens	19	4	4	11	17:42	16
13	Dandenong Thunder	19	3	3	13	20:42	12
14	Green Gully	19	2	4	13	13:39	10