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South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United

Australia & Oceania Australia & Oceania

OFC Pro League
Our Tip

Match Events

1' Event
Saniel A.
23' Event
Inglese L.
33'
Haruel R.

AI Match Summary

The OFC Pro League game between South Melbourne and Vanuatu United finished 5-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward South Melbourne.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
South Melbourne
6%
Draws
4%
Vanuatu United
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: South Melbourne

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Vanuatu United haven't matched South Melbourne's recent run of results.
  • South Melbourne are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 92%).
  • South Melbourne have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 92%
Over 3.5 Goals 77.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 35%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 34.400000000000006%
South Melbourne Clean Sheet 68%
Vanuatu United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric South Melbourne Vanuatu United
Matches Played 33 19
Wins 18 6
Draws 3 5
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.88 2
Goals Conceded 2.38 2
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 2.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.38 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 20, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United
4:0
Mar 15, 2026 OFC Pro League
Vanuatu United vs South Melbourne
2:0
Feb 8, 2026 OFC Pro League
South Melbourne vs Vanuatu United
5:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

South Melbourne Compare

Top Goalscorer Swibel J.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Inglese L.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.45
Avg xA / game 0.94

Vanuatu United Compare

Top Goalscorer Saniel A.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.82
Avg xA / game 1.11

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

South Melbourne 95 / 100
Vanuatu United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
South Melbourne Vanuatu United

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick SOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

South Melbourne's goal record stands at 82% scoring rate across 33 recent games.

These sides typically produce 4.33 goals when they meet.

Vanuatu United has conceded goals in 79% of their last 19 outings.

Recent resilience: South Melbourne stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

South Melbourne VS Vanuatu United
1.88 Goals Scored 2
2.38 Goals Conceded 2
100% Over 1.5 100%
100% Over 2.5 100%
75% Over 3.5 80%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Auckland FC 214102226:1032
2South Melbourne1474340:1825
3Bula1463514:1521
4South Island United1455424:2620
5Solomon Kings1453614:2118
6Tahiti United1445520:2817
7Vanuatu United1434720:2513
8PNG Hekari14221014:298