Sport Picks
Southampton vs Derby
England
Championship 2025/2026 St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton 
Match Events
9'
9'
Sub
Clark B. In: Fraulo O.
Out: Clark B.
38'
38'
Morris C.
53'
53'
Sanderson D.
AI Match Summary
The Championship 2025/2026 game between Southampton and Derby finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Southampton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
61%
20%
19%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Southampton
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ Very High Confidence
- Southampton carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Southampton a 70% chance of winning this.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.6%
Southampton Clean Sheet 20%
Derby Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Southampton | Derby |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 28 |
| Wins | 21 | 13 |
| Draws | 6 | 2 |
| Losses | 1 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.88 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.88 | 1.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 11, 2026 Championship
Southampton vs Derby
2:1
Oct 4, 2025 Championship
Derby vs Southampton
1:1
Jan 16, 2019 FA Cup
Southampton vs Derby
2:3
Jan 5, 2019 FA Cup
Derby vs Southampton
2:2
Jul 21, 2018 Club Friendly
Derby vs Southampton
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Southampton Compare
Top Goalscorer Scienza L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Harwood-Bellis T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Derby Compare
Top Goalscorer Morris C.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Southampton 67 / 100
Derby 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Southampton Derby
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick SOU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Southampton's goal record stands at 96% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
These sides typically produce 3.40 goals when they meet.
Southampton went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Derby let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.
Scoring Trends
Southampton VS Derby
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.5
63% Over 1.5 88%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Southampton
(Home) 01 Aug
Preussen Munster
1 : 2 Southampton
24 Jul
Braunschweig
0 : 1 Southampton
18 Jul
Eastleigh
1 : 3 Southampton
12 May
Southampton
2 : 1 Middlesbrough
09 May
Middlesbrough
0 : 0 Southampton
Page 1 of 6
12 May
Southampton
2 : 1 Middlesbrough
28 Apr
Southampton
2 : 2 Ipswich
21 Apr
Southampton
2 : 2 Bristol City
14 Apr
Southampton
3 : 0 Blackburn
11 Apr
Southampton
2 : 1 Derby
Page 1 of 3
Derby
(Away) 04 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1 Derby
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0 Derby
31 Jul
Mansfield
1 : 3 Derby
28 Jul
Derby
1 : 2 Valencia
24 Jul
Freiburg
3 : 1 Derby
Page 1 of 6
04 Aug
Rotherham
1 : 1 Derby
01 Aug
Burton
1 : 0 Derby
31 Jul
Mansfield
1 : 3 Derby
24 Jul
Freiburg
3 : 1 Derby
17 Jul
Alfreton
0 : 2 Derby
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coventry | 46 | 28 | 11 | 7 | 97:45 | 95 |
| 2 | Ipswich | 46 | 23 | 15 | 8 | 80:47 | 84 |
| 3 | Millwall | 46 | 24 | 11 | 11 | 64:49 | 83 |
| 4 | Southampton | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 82:56 | 80 |
| 5 | Middlesbrough | 46 | 22 | 14 | 10 | 72:47 | 80 |
| 6 | Hull City | 46 | 21 | 10 | 15 | 70:66 | 73 |
| 7 | Wrexham | 46 | 19 | 14 | 13 | 69:65 | 71 |
| 8 | Derby | 46 | 20 | 9 | 17 | 67:59 | 69 |
| 9 | Norwich | 46 | 19 | 8 | 19 | 63:56 | 65 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 46 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 57:56 | 64 |
| 11 | Swansea | 46 | 18 | 10 | 18 | 57:59 | 64 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 46 | 17 | 11 | 18 | 59:59 | 62 |
| 13 | Sheffield Utd | 46 | 18 | 6 | 22 | 66:66 | 60 |
| 14 | Preston | 46 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 55:62 | 60 |
| 15 | QPR | 46 | 16 | 10 | 20 | 61:73 | 58 |
| 16 | Watford | 46 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 53:65 | 57 |
| 17 | Stoke City | 46 | 15 | 10 | 21 | 51:56 | 55 |
| 18 | Portsmouth | 46 | 14 | 13 | 19 | 49:64 | 55 |
| 19 | Charlton | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 44:58 | 53 |
| 20 | Blackburn | 46 | 13 | 13 | 20 | 42:56 | 52 |
| 21 | West Brom | 46 | 13 | 14 | 19 | 48:58 | 51 |
| 22 | Oxford Utd | 46 | 11 | 14 | 21 | 45:59 | 47 |
| 23 | Leicester | 46 | 12 | 16 | 18 | 58:68 | 46 |
| 24 | Sheffield Wed | 46 | 2 | 12 | 32 | 29:89 | 0 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One (Main)
