Sport Picks

England

Championship 2025/2026 St. Mary's Stadium

Oxford Utd

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Southampton play Oxford Utd in the Championship 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Southampton averaged 1.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Oxford Utd averaged 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded. In past meetings, Southampton won 2, Oxford Utd won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 21, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.76 for Southampton and 1.27 for Oxford Utd. This points to a Southampton double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

52%

Southampton

23%

Draws

25%

Oxford Utd

Draw rate projection: 23% Favored: Southampton

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / High Confidence

Southampton picked up more points recently compared to Oxford Utd.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.76 vs 1.27 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 75%

Over 2.5 Goals 52%

Over 3.5 Goals 31%

Over 4.5 Goals 16%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 53%

Southampton Clean Sheet 19%

Oxford Utd Clean Sheet 10%

First Half Goal 68%

Second Half Goal 71%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Southampton	Oxford Utd
Matches Played	29	30
Wins	19	8
Draws	6	8
Losses	4	14
Goals Scored	1.93	0.9
Goals Conceded	1.07	1.2
Expected Goals (xG)	2.38	1.29
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.25	1.14

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Championship

Southampton vs Oxford Utd

Possession: 55% - 50% Cards: 2 - 3

2:0

Dec 26, 2025 Championship

Oxford Utd vs Southampton

Possession: 50% - 42% Cards: 4 - 2

2:1

Jul 31, 2024 Club Friendly

Oxford Utd vs Southampton

Possession: 47% - 60% Cards: 4 - 3

2:0

Apr 4, 1988 Premier League

Oxford Utd vs Southampton

Possession: 50% - 45% Cards: 1 - 2

0:0

Nov 14, 1987 Premier League

Southampton vs Oxford Utd

Possession: 44% - 57% Cards: 0 - 3

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Southampton Compare

Top Goalscorer Larin C.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Charles S.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.83

Avg xA / game 1.19

Oxford Utd Compare

Avg xG / game 1.17

Avg xA / game 0.72

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Southampton 51 / 100

Oxford Utd 25 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Southampton Oxford Utd

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Southampton or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +18%

2.27

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +12.8%

2.17

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Southampton attacking → ← attacking Oxford Utd

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Southampton scored in 93% of their last 29 games.

Oxford Utd let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Southampton went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Oxford Utd lost 3 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

63 Points in last 5 32

2.38 Goals expected (xG) 1.29

1.25 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.14

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Coventry	46	28	11	7	97:45	95
2	Ipswich	46	23	15	8	80:47	84
3	Millwall	46	24	11	11	64:49	83
4	Southampton	46	22	14	10	82:56	80
5	Middlesbrough	46	22	14	10	72:47	80
6	Hull City	46	21	10	15	70:66	73
7	Wrexham	46	19	14	13	69:65	71
8	Derby	46	20	9	17	67:59	69
9	Norwich	46	19	8	19	63:56	65
10	Birmingham	46	17	13	16	57:56	64
11	Swansea	46	18	10	18	57:59	64
12	Bristol City	46	17	11	18	59:59	62
13	Sheffield Utd	46	18	6	22	66:66	60
14	Preston	46	15	15	16	55:62	60
15	QPR	46	16	10	20	61:73	58
16	Watford	46	14	15	17	53:65	57
17	Stoke City	46	15	10	21	51:56	55
18	Portsmouth	46	14	13	19	49:64	55
19	Charlton	46	13	14	19	44:58	53
20	Blackburn	46	13	13	20	42:56	52
21	West Brom	46	13	14	19	48:58	51
22	Oxford Utd	46	11	14	21	45:59	47
23	Leicester	46	12	16	18	58:68	46
24	Sheffield Wed	46	2	12	32	29:89	0