Sport Picks
Southampton vs Swansea
England
Championship St. Mary's Stadium, Southampton 
Match Events
9'
9'
Azaz F.
Assist: Downes F.
33'
33'
Larin C.
Assist: Bree J.
46'
46'
Sub
Opoku J. In: Ronald
Out: Opoku J.
AI Match Summary
Southampton in this Championship matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Southampton.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
31%
30%
39%
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Swansea
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
31%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Southampton lately — more wins on the board than Swansea.
- 31% — that's where the model lands on Southampton taking it.
- Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- These two have met 5 times recently and Southampton have taken 4 of them.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 35.6%
Southampton Clean Sheet 68%
Swansea Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Southampton | Swansea |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 19 | 14 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 4 | 9 |
| Goals Scored | 2.03 | 1.37 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.03 | 1.2 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.31 | 1.25 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Sep 8, 2026 Championship
Southampton vs Swansea
3:1
Apr 18, 2026 Championship
Swansea vs Southampton
1:2
Oct 18, 2025 Championship
Southampton vs Swansea
0:0
Jan 12, 2025 FA Cup
Southampton vs Swansea
3:0
Jan 20, 2024 Championship
Swansea vs Southampton
1:3
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Southampton Compare
Top Goalscorer Azaz F.
1 Goals Assists Leader Larin C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66
Swansea Compare
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Southampton 59 / 100
Swansea 22 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Southampton Swansea
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Southampton Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 8:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Southampton scored in 97% of their last 29 outings.
Swansea let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
These sides typically produce 2.80 goals when they meet.
Recent resilience: Southampton stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Southampton VS Swansea
2 Goals Scored 1.13
1.38 Goals Conceded 0.63
100% Over 1.5 50%
63% Over 2.5 38%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Southampton
(Home) 19 Sept
Wrexham
2 : 1 Southampton
12 Sept
Southampton
4 : 1 Bristol City
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1 Swansea
05 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 1 Southampton
01 Sept
Birmingham
1 : 1 Southampton
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Southampton
4 : 1 Bristol City
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1 Swansea
29 Aug
Southampton
5 : 1 Millwall
25 Aug
Southampton
1 : 4 West Ham
22 Aug
Southampton
3 : 1 Stoke City
Page 1 of 3
Swansea
(Away) 19 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 2 Swansea
12 Sept
Swansea
3 : 1 Burnley
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1 Swansea
05 Sept
Swansea
0 : 0 Wrexham
01 Sept
Swansea
2 : 0 Watford
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Lincoln City
1 : 2 Swansea
08 Sept
Southampton
3 : 1 Swansea
29 Aug
Derby
0 : 3 Swansea
15 Aug
Stoke City
1 : 2 Swansea
28 Jul
Merthyr Town
3 : 0 Swansea
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:6 | 17 |
| 2 | West Ham | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22:11 | 15 |
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 16:12 | 15 |
| 4 | Wolves | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 15:10 | 14 |
| 5 | West Brom | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10:8 | 14 |
| 6 | QPR | 8 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 10:7 | 13 |
| 7 | Stoke City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 13:12 | 13 |
| 8 | Bristol City | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 11:12 | 13 |
| 9 | Charlton | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7:10 | 12 |
| 10 | Birmingham | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12:11 | 11 |
| 11 | Millwall | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15:15 | 11 |
| 12 | Lincoln City | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7:8 | 11 |
| 13 | Southampton | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 19:10 | 10 |
| 14 | Wrexham | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 9:12 | 10 |
| 15 | Bolton | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 11:15 | 10 |
| 16 | Blackburn | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 12:12 | 9 |
| 17 | Norwich | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 16:17 | 9 |
| 18 | Sheffield Utd | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | 9 |
| 19 | Portsmouth | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9:10 | 8 |
| 20 | Watford | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 7:10 | 8 |
| 21 | Cardiff | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10:12 | 7 |
| 22 | Derby | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7:14 | 5 |
| 23 | Preston | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8:15 | 4 |
| 24 | Burnley | 8 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 9:17 | 4 |
Promotion - Premier League 2027/2028 (Main)
Promotion - Championship 2025/2026 (Play Offs)
Promotion - Championship (Play Offs)
Relegation - League One 2027/2028 (Main)
